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Register a new userPulsar Timing Array Constraints on the Merger Timescale of Subparsec Supermassive Black Hole Binary Candidates
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Khai Nguyen
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We estimate the merger timescale of spectroscopically-selected, subparsec supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates by comparing their expected contribution to the gravitational wave background (GWB) with the sensitivity of current pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments and in particular, with the latest upper limit placed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). We find that the average timescale to coalescence of such SMBHBs is $langle t_{rm evol} rangle > 6times 10^4,$yr, assuming that their orbital evolution in the PTA frequency band is driven by emission of gravitational waves. If some fraction of SMBHBs do not reside in spectroscopically detected active galaxies, and their incidence in active and inactive galaxies is similar, then the merger timescale could be $sim 10$ times longer, $langle t_{rm evol} rangle > 6times 10^5,$yr. These limits are consistent with the range of timescales predicted by theoretical models and imply that all the SMBHB candidates in our spectroscopic sample could be binaries without violating the observational constraints on the GWB. This result illustrates the power of the multi-messenger approach, facilitated by the PTAs, in providing an independent statistical test of the nature of SMBHB candidates discovered in electromagnetic searches.
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The advent of time domain astronomy is revolutionizing our understanding of the Universe. Programs such as the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) or the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) surveyed millions of objects for several years, allowing variability studies on large statistical samples. The inspection of $approx$250k quasars in CRTS resulted in a catalogue of 111 potentially periodic sources, put forward as supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates. A similar investigation on PTF data yielded 33 candidates from a sample of $approx$35k quasars. Working under the SMBHB hypothesis, we compute the implied SMBHB merger rate and we use it to construct the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) at nano-Hz frequencies, probed by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). After correcting for incompleteness and assuming virial mass estimates, we find that the GWB implied by the CRTS sample exceeds the current most stringent PTA upper limits by almost an order of magnitude. After further correcting for the implicit bias in virial mass measurements, the implied GWB drops significantly but is still in tension with the most stringent PTA upper limits. Similar results hold for the PTF sample. Bayesian model selection shows that the null hypothesis (whereby the candidates are false positives) is preferred over the binary hypothesis at about $2.3sigma$ and $3.6sigma$ for the CRTS and PTF samples respectively. Although not decisive, our analysis highlights the potential of PTAs as astrophysical probes of individual SMBHB candidates and indicates that the CRTS and PTF samples are likely contaminated by several false positives.
In this paper we continue the first ever study of magnetized mini-disks coupled to circumbinary accretion in a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) approaching merger reported in Bowen et al. 2018. We extend this simulation from 3 to 12 binary orbital periods. We find that relativistic SMBBH accretion acts as a resonant cavity, where quasi-periodic oscillations tied to the the frequency at which the black holes orbital phase matches a non-linear $m=1$ density feature, or ``lump, in the circumbinary accretion disk permeate the system. The rate of mass accretion onto each of the mini-disks around the black holes is modulated at the beat frequency between the binary frequency and the lumps mean orbital frequency, i.e., $Omega_{rm beat} = Omega_{rm bin} - bar{Omega}_{rm lump}$, while the total mass accretion rate of this equal-mass binary is modulated at two different frequencies, $gtrsim bar{Omega}_{rm lump}$ and $approx 2 Omega_{rm beat}$. The instantaneous rotation rate of the lump itself is also modulated at two frequencies close to the modulation frequencies of the total accretion rate, $bar{Omega}_{rm lump}$ and $2 Omega_{rm beat}$. Because of the compact nature of the mini-disks in SMBBHs approaching merger, the inflow times within the mini-disks are comparable to the period on which their mass-supply varies, so that their masses---and the accretion rates they supply to their black holes---are strongly modulated at the same frequency. In essence, the azimuthal symmetry of the circumbinary disk is broken by the dynamics of orbits near a binary, and this $m=1$ asymmetry then drives quasi-periodic variation throughout the system, including both accretion and disk-feeding. In SMBBHs approaching merger, such time variability could introduce distinctive, increasingly rapid, fluctuations in their electromagnetic emission.
We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on astrophysical parameters. For PTAs specifically, we interpolate over the parameter space of supermassive black-hole binary environments, including 3-body stellar scattering, and evolving orbital eccentricity. We illustrate our approach on mock data, and assess the prospects for inference with data similar to the NANOGrav 9-yr data release.
We present the first fully relativistic prediction of the electromagnetic emission from the surrounding gas of a supermassive binary black hole system approaching merger. Using a ray-tracing code to post-process data from a general relativistic 3-d MHD simulation, we generate images and spectra, and analyze the viewing angle dependence of the light emitted. When the accretion rate is relatively high, the circumbinary disk, accretion streams, and mini-disks combine to emit light in the UV/EUV bands. We posit a thermal Compton hard X-ray spectrum for coronal emission; at high accretion rates, it is almost entirely produced in the mini-disks, but at lower accretion rates it is the primary radiation mechanism in the mini-disks and accretion streams as well. Due to relativistic beaming and gravitational lensing, the angular distribution of the power radiated is strongly anisotropic, especially near the equatorial plane.
It is widely accepted that dark matter contributes about a quarter of the critical mass-energy density in our Universe. The nature of dark matter is currently unknown, with the mass of possible constituents spanning nearly one hundred orders of magnitude. The ultralight scalar field dark matter, consisting of extremely light bosons with $m sim 10^{-22}$ eV and often called fuzzy dark matter, provides intriguing solutions to some challenges at sub-Galactic scales for the standard cold dark matter model. As shown by Khmelnitsky and Rubakov, such a scalar field in the Galaxy would produce an oscillating gravitational potential with nanohertz frequencies, resulting in periodic variations in the times of arrival of radio pulses from pulsars. The Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) has been monitoring 20 millisecond pulsars at two to three weeks intervals for more than a decade. In addition to the detection of nanohertz gravitational waves, PPTA offers the opportunity for direct searches for fuzzy dark matter in an astrophysically feasible range of masses. We analyze the latest PPTA data set which includes timing observations for 26 pulsars made between 2004 and 2016. We perform a search in this data set for evidence of ultralight dark matter in the Galaxy using Bayesian and Frequentist methods. No statistically significant detection has been made. We therefore place upper limits on the local dark matter density. Our limits, improving on previous searches by a factor of two to five, constrain the dark matter density of ultralight bosons with $m leq 10^{-23}$ eV to be below $6,text{GeV},text{cm}^{-3}$ with 95% confidence in the Earth neighborhood. Finally, we discuss the prospect of probing the astrophysically favored mass range $m gtrsim 10^{-22}$ eV with next-generation pulsar timing facilities.
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