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Register a new userTesting the binary hypothesis: pulsar timing constraints on supermassive black hole binary candidates
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The advent of time domain astronomy is revolutionizing our understanding of the Universe. Programs such as the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey (CRTS) or the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) surveyed millions of objects for several years, allowing variability studies on large statistical samples. The inspection of $approx$250k quasars in CRTS resulted in a catalogue of 111 potentially periodic sources, put forward as supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates. A similar investigation on PTF data yielded 33 candidates from a sample of $approx$35k quasars. Working under the SMBHB hypothesis, we compute the implied SMBHB merger rate and we use it to construct the expected gravitational wave background (GWB) at nano-Hz frequencies, probed by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). After correcting for incompleteness and assuming virial mass estimates, we find that the GWB implied by the CRTS sample exceeds the current most stringent PTA upper limits by almost an order of magnitude. After further correcting for the implicit bias in virial mass measurements, the implied GWB drops significantly but is still in tension with the most stringent PTA upper limits. Similar results hold for the PTF sample. Bayesian model selection shows that the null hypothesis (whereby the candidates are false positives) is preferred over the binary hypothesis at about $2.3sigma$ and $3.6sigma$ for the CRTS and PTF samples respectively. Although not decisive, our analysis highlights the potential of PTAs as astrophysical probes of individual SMBHB candidates and indicates that the CRTS and PTF samples are likely contaminated by several false positives.
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We estimate the merger timescale of spectroscopically-selected, subparsec supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates by comparing their expected contribution to the gravitational wave background (GWB) with the sensitivity of current pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments and in particular, with the latest upper limit placed by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). We find that the average timescale to coalescence of such SMBHBs is $langle t_{rm evol} rangle > 6times 10^4,$yr, assuming that their orbital evolution in the PTA frequency band is driven by emission of gravitational waves. If some fraction of SMBHBs do not reside in spectroscopically detected active galaxies, and their incidence in active and inactive galaxies is similar, then the merger timescale could be $sim 10$ times longer, $langle t_{rm evol} rangle > 6times 10^5,$yr. These limits are consistent with the range of timescales predicted by theoretical models and imply that all the SMBHB candidates in our spectroscopic sample could be binaries without violating the observational constraints on the GWB. This result illustrates the power of the multi-messenger approach, facilitated by the PTAs, in providing an independent statistical test of the nature of SMBHB candidates discovered in electromagnetic searches.
We present a systematic search for periodically varying quasar and supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) candidates in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. From $sim9,000$ color-selected quasars in a $sim50$ deg$^{2}$ sky area, we initially identify $26$ candidates with more than $1.5$ cycles of variation. We extend the baseline of observations via our imaging campaign with the Discovery Channel Telescope and the Las Cumbres Observatory network and reevaluate the candidates using a more rigorous, maximum likelihood method. Using a range of statistical criteria and assuming the Damped Random Walk model for normal quasar variability, we identify one statistically significant periodic candidate. We also investigate the capabilities of detecting SMBHBs by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope using our study with MDS as a benchmark and explore any complementary, multiwavelength evidence for SMBHBs in our sample.
At about 70 solar masses, the recently-discovered dark object orbited by a B-type star in the system LB-1 is difficult to understand as the end point of standard stellar evolution, except as a binary black hole (BBH). LB-1 shows a strong, broad H-alpha emission line that is best attributed to a gaseous disk surrounding the dark mass. We use the observed H-alpha line shape, particularly its wing extension, to constrain the inner radius of the disk and thereby the separation of a putative BBH. The hypothesis of a current BBH is effectively ruled out on the grounds that its merger time must be a small fraction of the current age of the B star. The hypothesis of a previous BBH that merged to create the current dark mass is also effectively ruled out by the low orbital eccentricity, due to the combination of mass loss and kick resulted from gravitational wave emission in any past merger. We conclude that the current dark mass is a single black hole produced by the highly mass-conserving, monolithic collapse of a massive star.
Elusive supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) are thought to be the penultimate stage of galaxy mergers, preceding a final coalescence phase. SMBHBs are sources of continuous gravitational waves, possibly detectable by pulsar timing arrays; the identification of candidates could help in performing targeted gravitational wave searches. Due to their origin in the innermost parts of active galactic nuclei (AGN), X-rays are a promising tool to unveil the presence of SMBHBs, by means of either double Fe K$alpha$ emission lines or periodicity in their light curve. Here we report on a new method to select SMBHBs by means of the presence of a periodic signal in their Swift-BAT 105-months light curves. Our technique is based on the Fishers exact g-test and takes into account the possible presence of colored noise. Among the 553 AGN selected for our investigation, only the Seyfert 1.5 Mrk 915 emerged as possible candidate for a SMBHB; from the subsequent analysis of its light curve we find a period $P_0=35pm2$ months, and the null hypothesis is rejected at the $3.7sigma$ confidence level. We also present a detailed analysis of the BAT light curve of the only previously X-ray-selected binary candidate source in the literature, the Seyfert 2 galaxy MCG+11-11-032. We find $P_0=26.3pm0.6$ months, consistent with the one inferred from previously reported double Fe K$alpha$ emission lines.
We introduce a technique for gravitational-wave analysis, where Gaussian process regression is used to emulate the strain spectrum of a stochastic background using population-synthesis simulations. This leads to direct Bayesian inference on astrophysical parameters. For PTAs specifically, we interpolate over the parameter space of supermassive black-hole binary environments, including 3-body stellar scattering, and evolving orbital eccentricity. We illustrate our approach on mock data, and assess the prospects for inference with data similar to the NANOGrav 9-yr data release.
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