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Register a new userHeterogeneous-Agent Trajectory Forecasting Incorporating Class Uncertainty
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Added by
Boris Ivanovic
Publication date
2021
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Reasoning about the future behavior of other agents is critical to safe robot navigation. The multiplicity of plausible futures is further amplified by the uncertainty inherent to agent state estimation from data, including positions, velocities, and semantic class. Forecasting methods, however, typically neglect class uncertainty, conditioning instead only on the agents most likely class, even though perception models often return full class distributions. To exploit this information, we present HAICU, a method for heterogeneous-agent trajectory forecasting that explicitly incorporates agents class probabilities. We additionally present PUP, a new challenging real-world autonomous driving dataset, to investigate the impact of Perceptual Uncertainty in Prediction. It contains challenging crowded scenes with unfiltered agent class probabilities that reflect the long-tail of current state-of-the-art perception systems. We demonstrate that incorporating class probabilities in trajectory forecasting significantly improves performance in the face of uncertainty, and enables new forecasting capabilities such as counterfactual predictions.
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Forecasting complex vehicle and pedestrian multi-modal distributions requires powerful probabilistic approaches. Normalizing flows (NF) have recently emerged as an attractive tool to model such distributions. However, a key drawback is that independent samples drawn from a flow model often do not adequately capture all the modes in the underlying distribution. We propose Likelihood-Based Diverse Sampling (LDS), a method for improving the quality and the diversity of trajectory samples from a pre-trained flow model. Rather than producing individual samples, LDS produces a set of trajectories in one shot. Given a pre-trained forecasting flow model, we train LDS using gradients from the model, to optimize an objective function that rewards high likelihood for individual trajectories in the predicted set, together with high spatial separation among trajectories. LDS outperforms state-of-art post-hoc neural diverse forecasting methods for various pre-trained flow models as well as conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) models. Crucially, it can also be used for transductive trajectory forecasting, where the diverse forecasts are trained on-the-fly on unlabeled test examples. LDS is easy to implement, and we show that it offers a simple plug-in improvement over baselines on two challenging benchmarks. Code is at: https://github.com/JasonMa2016/LDS
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We propose a robust solution to future trajectory forecast, which can be practically applicable to autonomous agents in highly crowded environments. For this, three aspects are particularly addressed in this paper. First, we use composite fields to predict future locations of all road agents in a single-shot, which results in a constant time complexity, regardless of the number of agents in the scene. Second, interactions between agents are modeled as a non-local response, enabling spatial relationships between different locations to be captured temporally as well (i.e., in spatio-temporal interactions). Third, the semantic context of the scene are modeled and take into account the environmental constraints that potentially influence the future motion. To this end, we validate the robustness of the proposed approach using the ETH, UCY, and SDD datasets and highlight its practical functionality compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.
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