No Arabic abstract
Understanding crowd behaviors in a large social event is crucial for event management. Passive WiFi sensing, by collecting WiFi probe requests sent from mobile devices, provides a better way to monitor crowds compared with people counters and cameras in terms of free interference, larger coverage, lower cost, and more information on peoples movement. In existing studies, however, not enough attention has been paid to the thorough analysis and mining of collected data. Especially, the power of machine learning has not been fully exploited. In this paper, therefore, we propose a comprehensive data analysis framework to fully analyze the collected probe requests to extract three types of patterns related to crowd behaviors in a large social event, with the help of statistics, visualization, and unsupervised machine learning. First, trajectories of the mobile devices are extracted from probe requests and analyzed to reveal the spatial patterns of the crowds movement. Hierarchical agglomerative clustering is adopted to find the interconnections between different locations. Next, k-means and k-shape clustering algorithms are applied to extract temporal visiting patterns of the crowds by days and locations, respectively. Finally, by combining with time, trajectories are transformed into spatiotemporal patterns, which reveal how trajectory duration changes over the length and how the overall trends of crowd movement change over time. The proposed data analysis framework is fully demonstrated using real-world data collected in a large social event. Results show that one can extract comprehensive patterns from data collected by a network of passive WiFi sensors.
Worker recruitment is a crucial research problem in Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS). While previous studies rely on a specified platform with a pre-assumed large user pool, this paper leverages the influenced propagation on the social network to assist the MCS worker recruitment. We first select a subset of users on the social network as initial seeds and push MCS tasks to them. Then, influenced users who accept tasks are recruited as workers, and the ultimate goal is to maximize the coverage. Specifically, to select a near-optimal set of seeds, we propose two algorithms, named Basic-Selector and Fast-Selector, respectively. Basic-Selector adopts an iterative greedy process based on the predicted mobility, which has good performance but suffers from inefficiency concerns. To accelerate the selection, Fast-Selector is proposed, which is based on the interdependency of geographical positions among friends. Empirical studies on two real-world datasets verify that Fast-Selector achieves higher coverage than baseline methods under various settings, meanwhile, it is much more efficient than Basic-Selector while only sacrificing a slight fraction of the coverage.
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected peoples lives around the world on an unprecedented scale. We intend to investigate hoarding behaviors in response to the pandemic using large-scale social media data. First, we collect hoarding-related tweets shortly after the outbreak of the coronavirus. Next, we analyze the hoarding and anti-hoarding patterns of over 42,000 unique Twitter users in the United States from March 1 to April 30, 2020, and dissect the hoarding-related tweets by age, gender, and geographic location. We find the percentage of females in both hoarding and anti-hoarding groups is higher than that of the general Twitter user population. Furthermore, using topic modeling, we investigate the opinions expressed towards the hoarding behavior by categorizing these topics according to demographic and geographic groups. We also calculate the anxiety scores for the hoarding and anti-hoarding related tweets using a lexical approach. By comparing their anxiety scores with the baseline Twitter anxiety score, we reveal further insights. The LIWC anxiety mean for the hoarding-related tweets is significantly higher than the baseline Twitter anxiety mean. Interestingly, beer has the highest calculated anxiety score compared to other hoarded items mentioned in the tweets.
The problem of predicting peoples participation in real-world events has received considerable attention as it offers valuable insights for human behavior analysis and event-related advertisement. Today social networks (e.g. Twitter) widely reflect large popular events where people discuss their interest with friends. Event participants usually stimulate friends to join the event which propagates a social influence in the network. In this paper, we propose to model the social influence of friends on event attendance. We consider non-geotagged posts besides structures of social groups to infer users attendance. To leverage the information on network topology we apply some of recent graph embedding techniques such as node2vec, HARP and Poincar`e. We describe the approach followed to design the feature space and feed it to a neural network. The performance evaluation is conducted using two large music festivals datasets, namely the VFestival and Creamfields. The experimental results show that our classifier outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline with 89% accuracy observed for the VFestival dataset.
The forecasting of political, economic, and public health indicators using internet activity has demonstrated mixed results. For example, while some measures of explicitly surveyed public opinion correlate well with social media proxies, the opportunity for profitable investment strategies to be driven solely by sentiment extracted from social media appears to have expired. Nevertheless, the internets space of potentially predictive input signals is combinatorially vast and will continue to invite careful exploration. Here, we combine unemployment related search data from Google Trends with economic language on Twitter to attempt to nowcast and forecast: 1. State and national unemployment claims for the US, and 2. Consumer confidence in G7 countries. Building off of a recently developed search-query-based model, we show that incorporating Twitter data improves forecasting of unemployment claims, while the original method remains marginally better at nowcasting. Enriching the input signal with temporal statistical features (e.g., moving average and rate of change) further reduces errors, and improves the predictive utility of the proposed method when applied to other economic indices, such as consumer confidence.
We discuss the problem of extending data mining approaches to cases in which data points arise in the form of individual graphs. Being able to find the intrinsic low-dimensionality in ensembles of graphs can be useful in a variety of modeling contexts, especially when coarse-graining the detailed graph information is of interest. One of the main challenges in mining graph data is the definition of a suitable pairwise similarity metric in the space of graphs. We explore two practical solutions to solving this problem: one based on finding subgraph densities, and one using spectral information. The approach is illustrated on three test data sets (ensembles of graphs); two of these are obtained from standard graph generating algorithms, while the graphs in the third example are sampled as dynamic snapshots from an evolving network simulation. We further incorporate these approaches with equation free techniques, demonstrating how such data mining approaches can enhance scientific computation of network evolution dynamics.