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Register a new userBlending search queries with social media data to improve forecasts of economic indicators
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The forecasting of political, economic, and public health indicators using internet activity has demonstrated mixed results. For example, while some measures of explicitly surveyed public opinion correlate well with social media proxies, the opportunity for profitable investment strategies to be driven solely by sentiment extracted from social media appears to have expired. Nevertheless, the internets space of potentially predictive input signals is combinatorially vast and will continue to invite careful exploration. Here, we combine unemployment related search data from Google Trends with economic language on Twitter to attempt to nowcast and forecast: 1. State and national unemployment claims for the US, and 2. Consumer confidence in G7 countries. Building off of a recently developed search-query-based model, we show that incorporating Twitter data improves forecasting of unemployment claims, while the original method remains marginally better at nowcasting. Enriching the input signal with temporal statistical features (e.g., moving average and rate of change) further reduces errors, and improves the predictive utility of the proposed method when applied to other economic indices, such as consumer confidence.
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Risk and response communication of public agencies through social media played a significant role in the emergence and spread of novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and such interactions were echoed in other information outlets. This study collected time-sensitive online social media data and analyzed such communication patterns from public health (WHO, CDC), emergency (FEMA), and transportation (FDOT) agencies using data-driven methods. The scope of the work includes a detailed understanding of how agencies communicate risk information through social media during a pandemic and influence community response (i.e. timing of lockdown, timing of reopening) and disease outbreak indicators (i.e. number of confirmed cases, number of deaths). The data includes Twitter interactions from different agencies (2.15K tweets per agency on average) and crowdsourced data (i.e. Worldometer) on COVID-19 cases and deaths were observed between February 21, 2020 and June 06, 2020. Several machine learning techniques such as (i.e. topic mining and sentiment ratings over time) are applied here to identify the dynamics of emergent topics during this unprecedented time. Temporal infographics of the results captured the agency-levels variations over time in circulating information about the importance of face covering, home quarantine, social distancing and contact tracing. In addition, agencies showed differences in their discussions about community transmission, lack of personal protective equipment, testing and medical supplies, use of tobacco, vaccine, mental health issues, hospitalization, hurricane season, airports, construction work among others. Findings could support more efficient transfer of risk and response information as communities shift to new normal as well as in future pandemics.
The success of a disaster relief and response process is largely dependent on timely and accurate information regarding the status of the disaster, the surrounding environment, and the affected people. This information is primarily provided by first responders on-site and can be enhanced by the firsthand reports posted in real-time on social media. Many tools and methods have been developed to automate disaster relief by extracting, analyzing, and visualizing actionable information from social media. However, these methods are not well integrated in the relief and response processes and the relation between the two requires exposition for further advancement. In this survey, we review the new frontier of intelligent disaster relief and response using social media, show stages of disasters which are reflected on social media, establish a connection between proposed methods based on social media and relief efforts by first responders, and outline pressing challenges and future research directions.
Online social networks are often subject to influence campaigns by malicious actors through the use of automated accounts known as bots. We consider the problem of detecting bots in online social networks and assessing their impact on the opinions of individuals. We begin by analyzing the behavior of bots in social networks and identify that they exhibit heterophily, meaning they interact with humans more than other bots. We use this property to develop a detection algorithm based on the Ising model from statistical physics. The bots are identified by solving a minimum cut problem. We show that this Ising model algorithm can identify bots with higher accuracy while utilizing much less data than other state of the art methods. We then develop a a function we call generalized harmonic influence centrality to estimate the impact bots have on the opinions of users in social networks. This function is based on a generalized opinion dynamics model and captures how the activity level and network connectivity of the bots shift equilibrium opinions. To apply generalized harmonic influence centrality to real social networks, we develop a deep neural network to measure the opinions of users based on their social network posts. Using this neural network, we then calculate the generalized harmonic influence centrality of bots in multiple real social networks. For some networks we find that a limited number of bots can cause non-trivial shifts in the population opinions. In other networks, we find that the bots have little impact. Overall we find that generalized harmonic influence centrality is a useful operational tool to measure the impact of bots in social networks.
Predicting human mobility flows at different spatial scales is challenged by the heterogeneity of individual trajectories and the multi-scale nature of transportation networks. As vast amounts of digital traces of human behaviour become available, an opportunity arises to improve mobility models by integrating into them proxy data on mobility collected by a variety of digital platforms and location-aware services. Here we propose a hybrid model of human mobility that integrates a large-scale publicly available dataset from a popular photo-sharing system with the classical gravity model, under a stacked regression procedure. We validate the performance and generalizability of our approach using two ground-truth datasets on air travel and daily commuting in the United States: using two different cross-validation schemes we show that the hybrid model affords enhanced mobility prediction at both spatial scales.
Milgram empirically showed that people knowing only connections to their friends could locate any person in the U.S. in a few steps. Later research showed that social network topology enables a node aware of its full routing to find an arbitrary target in even fewer steps. Yet, the success of people in forwarding efficiently knowing only personal connections is still not fully explained. To study this problem, we emulate it on a real location-based social network, Gowalla. It provides explicit information about friends and temporal locations of each user useful for studies of human mobility. Here, we use it to conduct a massive computational experiment to establish new necessary and sufficient conditions for achieving social search efficiency. The results demonstrate that only the distribution of friendship edges and the partial knowledge of friends of friends are essential and sufficient for the efficiency of social search. Surprisingly, the efficiency of the search using the original distribution of friendship edges is not dependent on how the nodes are distributed into space. Moreover, the effect of using a limited knowledge that each node possesses about friends of its friends is strongly nonlinear. We show that gains of such use grow statistically significantly only when this knowledge is limited to a small fraction of friends of friends.
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