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Register a new userKinematic Single Vehicle Trajectory Prediction Baselines and Applications with the NGSIM Dataset
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Jean Mercat
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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In the recent vehicle trajectory prediction literature, the most common baselines are briefly introduced without the necessary information to reproduce it. In this article we produce reproducible vehicle prediction results from simple models. For that purpose, the process is explicit, and the code is available. Those baseline models are a constant velocity model and a single-vehicle prediction model. They are applied on the NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets using only relative positions. Thus, the process can be reproduced with any database containing tracking of vehicle positions. The evaluation reports Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Final Displacement Error (FDE), Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL), and Miss Rate (MR). The NLL estimation needs a careful definition because several formulations that differ from the mathematical definition are used in other works. This article is meant to be used along with the published code to establish baselines for further work. An extension is proposed to replace the constant velocity assumption with a learned model using a recurrent neural network. This brings good improvements in accuracy and uncertainty estimation and opens possibilities for both complex and interpretable models.
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Highway driving invariably combines high speeds with the need to interact closely with other drivers. Prediction methods enable autonomous vehicles (AVs) to anticipate drivers future trajectories and plan accordingly. Kinematic methods for prediction have traditionally ignored the presence of other drivers, or made predictions only for a limited set of scenarios. Data-driven approaches fill this gap by learning from large datasets to predict trajectories in general scenarios. While they achieve high accuracy, they also lose the interpretability and tools for model validation enjoyed by kinematic methods. This letter proposes a novel kinematic model to describe car-following and lane change behavior, and extends it to predict trajectories in general scenarios. Experiments on highway datasets under varied sensing conditions demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
Trajectory prediction is a critical technique in the navigation of robots and autonomous vehicles. However, the complex traffic and dynamic uncertainties yield challenges in the effectiveness and robustness in modeling. We purpose a data-driven approach socially aware Kalman neural networks (SAKNN) where the interaction layer and the Kalman layer are embedded in the architecture, resulting in a class of architectures with huge potential to directly learn from high variance sensor input and robustly generate low variance outcomes. The evaluation of our approach on NGSIM dataset demonstrates that SAKNN performs state-of-the-art on prediction effectiveness in a relatively long-term horizon and significantly improves the signal-to-noise ratio of the predicted signal.
Trajectory prediction is one of the key capabilities for robots to safely navigate and interact with pedestrians. Critical insights from human intention and behavioral patterns need to be integrated to effectively forecast long-term pedestrian behavior. Thus, we propose a framework incorporating a Mutable Intention Filter and a Warp LSTM (MIF-WLSTM) to simultaneously estimate human intention and perform trajectory prediction. The Mutable Intention Filter is inspired by particle filtering and genetic algorithms, where particles represent intention hypotheses that can be mutated throughout the pedestrian motion. Instead of predicting sequential displacement over time, our Warp LSTM learns to generate offsets on a full trajectory predicted by a nominal intention-aware linear model, which considers the intention hypotheses during filtering process. Through experiments on a publicly available dataset, we show that our method outperforms baseline approaches and demonstrate the robust performance of our method under abnormal intention-changing scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/tedhuang96/mifwlstm.
Multi-pedestrian trajectory prediction is an indispensable safety element of autonomous systems that interact with crowds in unstructured environments. Many recent efforts have developed trajectory prediction algorithms with focus on understanding social norms behind pedestrian motions. Yet we observe these works usually hold two assumptions that prevent them from being smoothly applied to robot applications: positions of all pedestrians are consistently tracked; the target agent pays attention to all pedestrians in the scene. The first assumption leads to biased interaction modeling with incomplete pedestrian data, and the second assumption introduces unnecessary disturbances and leads to the freezing robot problem. Thus, we propose Gumbel Social Transformer, in which an Edge Gumbel Selector samples a sparse interaction graph of partially observed pedestrians at each time step. A Node Transformer Encoder and a Masked LSTM encode the pedestrian features with the sampled sparse graphs to predict trajectories. We demonstrate that our model overcomes the potential problems caused by the assumptions, and our approach outperforms the related works in benchmark evaluation.
Advances in micro-electro-mechanical (MEMS) techniques enable inertial measurements units (IMUs) to be small, cheap, energy efficient, and widely used in smartphones, robots, and drones. Exploiting inertial data for accurate and reliable navigation and localization has attracted significant research and industrial interest, as IMU measurements are completely ego-centric and generally environment agnostic. Recent studies have shown that the notorious issue of drift can be significantly alleviated by using deep neural networks (DNNs), e.g. IONet. However, the lack of sufficient labelled data for training and testing various architectures limits the proliferation of adopting DNNs in IMU-based tasks. In this paper, we propose and release the Oxford Inertial Odometry Dataset (OxIOD), a first-of-its-kind data collection for inertial-odometry research, with all sequences having ground-truth labels. Our dataset contains 158 sequences totalling more than 42 km in total distance, much larger than previous inertial datasets. Another notable feature of this dataset lies in its diversity, which can reflect the complex motions of phone-based IMUs in various everyday usage. The measurements were collected with four different attachments (handheld, in the pocket, in the handbag and on the trolley), four motion modes (halting, walking slowly, walking normally, and running), five different users, four types of off-the-shelf consumer phones, and large-scale localization from office buildings. Deep inertial tracking experiments were conducted to show the effectiveness of our dataset in training deep neural network models and evaluate learning-based and model-based algorithms. The OxIOD Dataset is available at: http://deepio.cs.ox.ac.uk
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