No Arabic abstract
Highway driving invariably combines high speeds with the need to interact closely with other drivers. Prediction methods enable autonomous vehicles (AVs) to anticipate drivers future trajectories and plan accordingly. Kinematic methods for prediction have traditionally ignored the presence of other drivers, or made predictions only for a limited set of scenarios. Data-driven approaches fill this gap by learning from large datasets to predict trajectories in general scenarios. While they achieve high accuracy, they also lose the interpretability and tools for model validation enjoyed by kinematic methods. This letter proposes a novel kinematic model to describe car-following and lane change behavior, and extends it to predict trajectories in general scenarios. Experiments on highway datasets under varied sensing conditions demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.
In the recent vehicle trajectory prediction literature, the most common baselines are briefly introduced without the necessary information to reproduce it. In this article we produce reproducible vehicle prediction results from simple models. For that purpose, the process is explicit, and the code is available. Those baseline models are a constant velocity model and a single-vehicle prediction model. They are applied on the NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets using only relative positions. Thus, the process can be reproduced with any database containing tracking of vehicle positions. The evaluation reports Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Final Displacement Error (FDE), Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL), and Miss Rate (MR). The NLL estimation needs a careful definition because several formulations that differ from the mathematical definition are used in other works. This article is meant to be used along with the published code to establish baselines for further work. An extension is proposed to replace the constant velocity assumption with a learned model using a recurrent neural network. This brings good improvements in accuracy and uncertainty estimation and opens possibilities for both complex and interpretable models.
Autonomous driving in mixed traffic requires reliable motion prediction of nearby traffic agents such as pedestrians, bicycles, cars, buses, etc.. This prediction problem is extremely challenging because of the diverse dynamics and geometry of traffic agents, complex road conditions, and intensive interactions among the agents. In this paper, we proposed GAMMA, a general agent motion prediction model for autonomous driving, that can predict the motion of heterogeneous traffic agents with different kinematics, geometry, human agents inner states, etc.. GAMMA formalizes motion prediction as geometric optimization in the velocity space, and integrates physical constraints and human inner states into this unified framework. Our results show that GAMMA outperforms state-of-the-art approaches significantly on diverse real-world datasets.
Efficient trajectory planning for urban intersections is currently one of the most challenging tasks for an Autonomous Vehicle (AV). Courteous behavior towards other traffic participants, the AVs comfort and its progression in the environment are the key aspects that determine the performance of trajectory planning algorithms. To capture these aspects, we propose a novel trajectory planning framework that ensures social compliance and simultaneously optimizes the AVs comfort subject to kinematic constraints. The framework combines a local continuous optimization approach and an efficient driver model to ensure fast behavior prediction, maneuver generation and decision making over long horizons. The proposed framework is evaluated in different scenarios to demonstrate its capabilities in terms of the resulting trajectories and runtime.
Point cloud has been widely used in the field of autonomous driving since it can provide a more comprehensive three-dimensional representation of the environment than 2D images. Point-wise prediction based on point cloud sequence (PCS) is an essential part of environment understanding, which can assist in the decision-making and motion-planning of autonomous vehicles. However, PCS prediction has not been deeply researched in the literature. This paper proposes a brief review of the sequential point cloud prediction methods, focusing on interactive scenarios. Firstly, we define the PCS prediction problem and introduce commonly-used frameworks. Secondly, by reviewing non-predictive problems, we analyze and summarize the spatio-temporal feature extraction methods based on PCS. On this basis, we review two types of PCS prediction tasks, scene flow estimation (SFE) and point cloud location prediction (PCLP), highlighting their connections and differences. Finally, we discuss some opening issues and point out some potential research directions.
Forecasting the motion of surrounding obstacles (vehicles, bicycles, pedestrians and etc.) benefits the on-road motion planning for intelligent and autonomous vehicles. Complex scenes always yield great challenges in modeling the patterns of surrounding traffic. For example, one main challenge comes from the intractable interaction effects in a complex traffic system. In this paper, we propose a multi-layer architecture Interaction-aware Kalman Neural Networks (IaKNN) which involves an interaction layer for resolving high-dimensional traffic environmental observations as interaction-aware accelerations, a motion layer for transforming the accelerations to interaction aware trajectories, and a filter layer for estimating future trajectories with a Kalman filter network. Attributed to the multiple traffic data sources, our end-to-end trainable approach technically fuses dynamic and interaction-aware trajectories boosting the prediction performance. Experiments on the NGSIM dataset demonstrate that IaKNN outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of effectiveness for traffic trajectory prediction.