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Register a new userVulnerabilities of Power System Operations to Load Forecasting Data Injection Attacks
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Added by
Yize Chen
Publication date
2019
fields
Electronic Engineering
and research's language is
English
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We study the security threats of power system operation brought by a class of data injection attacks upon load forecasting algorithms. In particular, with minimal assumptions on the knowledge and ability of the attacker, we design attack data on input features for load forecasting algorithms in a black-box approach. System operators can be oblivious of such wrong load forecasts, which lead to uneconomical or even insecure decisions in commitment and dispatch. This paper is the first attempt to bring up the security issues of load forecasting algorithms to our knowledge, and show that accurate load forecasting algorithm is not necessarily robust to malicious attacks. More severely, attackers are able to design targeted attacks on system operations strategically with additional topology information. We demonstrate the impact of load forecasting attacks on two IEEE test cases. We show our attack strategy is able to cause load shedding with high probability under various settings in the 14-bus test case, and also demonstrate system-wide threats in the 118-bus test case with limited local attacks.
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Load forecasting plays a critical role in the operation and planning of power systems. By using input features such as historical loads and weather forecasts, system operators and utilities build forecast models to guide decision making in commitment and dispatch. As the forecasting techniques becomes more sophisticated, however, they also become more vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of a class of load forecasting algorithms and analyze the potential impact on the power system operations, such as load shedding and increased dispatch costs. Specifically, we propose data injection attack algorithms that require minimal assumptions on the ability of the adversary. The attacker does not need to have knowledge about the load forecasting model or the underlying power system. Surprisingly, our results indicate that standard load forecasting algorithms are quite vulnerable to the designed black-box attacks. By only injecting malicious data in temperature from online weather forecast APIs, an attacker could manipulate load forecasts in arbitrary directions and cause significant and targeted damages to system operations.
In this chapter we review some of the basic attack constructions that exploit a stochastic description of the state variables. We pose the state estimation problem in a Bayesian setting and cast the bad data detection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem. This revised detection framework provides the benchmark for the attack detection problem that limits the achievable attack disruption. Indeed, the trade-off between the impact of the attack, in terms of disruption to the state estimator, and the probability of attack detection is analytically characterized within this Bayesian attack setting. We then generalize the attack construction by considering information-theoretic measures that place fundamental limits to a broad class of detection, estimation, and learning techniques. Because the attack constructions proposed in this chapter rely on the attacker having access to the statistical structure of the random process describing the state variables, we conclude by studying the impact of imperfect statistics on the attack performance. Specifically, we study the attack performance as a function of the size of the training data set that is available to the attacker to estimate the second-order statistics of the state variables.
Power systems are moving towards hybrid AC/DC grids with the integration of HVDC links, renewable resources and energy storage modules. New models of frequency control have to consider the complex interactions between these components. Meanwhile, more attention should be paid to cyber security concerns as these control strategies highly depend on data communications which may be exposed to cyber attacks. In this regard, this article aims to analyze the false data injection (FDI) attacks on the AC/DC interconnected system with virtual inertia and develop advanced diagnosis tools to reveal their occurrence. We build an optimization-based framework for the purpose of vulnerability and attack impact analysis. Considering the attack impact on the system frequency stability, it is shown that the hybrid grid with parallel AC/DC links and emulated inertia is more vulnerable to the FDI attacks, compared with the one without virtual inertia and the normal AC system. We then propose a detection approach to detect and isolate each FDI intrusion with a sufficient fast response, and even recover the attack value. In addition to theoretical results, the effectiveness of the proposed methods is validated through simulations on the two-area AC/DC interconnected system with virtual inertia emulation capabilities.
In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration. Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner. Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation capability, the proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way. The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
Encoder-decoder-based recurrent neural network (RNN) has made significant progress in sequence-to-sequence learning tasks such as machine translation and conversational models. Recent works have shown the advantage of this type of network in dealing with various time series forecasting tasks. The present paper focuses on the problem of multi-horizon short-term load forecasting, which plays a key role in the power systems planning and operation. Leveraging the encoder-decoder RNN, we develop an attention model to select the relevant features and similar temporal information adaptively. First, input features are assigned with different weights by a feature selection attention layer, while the updated historical features are encoded by a bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) layer. Then, a decoder with hierarchical temporal attention enables a similar day selection, which re-evaluates the importance of historical information at each time step. Numerical results tested on the dataset of the global energy forecasting competition 2014 show that our proposed model significantly outperforms some existing forecasting schemes.
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