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Register a new userAttention-based Neural Load Forecasting: A Dynamic Feature Selection Approach
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Encoder-decoder-based recurrent neural network (RNN) has made significant progress in sequence-to-sequence learning tasks such as machine translation and conversational models. Recent works have shown the advantage of this type of network in dealing with various time series forecasting tasks. The present paper focuses on the problem of multi-horizon short-term load forecasting, which plays a key role in the power systems planning and operation. Leveraging the encoder-decoder RNN, we develop an attention model to select the relevant features and similar temporal information adaptively. First, input features are assigned with different weights by a feature selection attention layer, while the updated historical features are encoded by a bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) layer. Then, a decoder with hierarchical temporal attention enables a similar day selection, which re-evaluates the importance of historical information at each time step. Numerical results tested on the dataset of the global energy forecasting competition 2014 show that our proposed model significantly outperforms some existing forecasting schemes.
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Feature selection is important in data representation and intelligent diagnosis. Elastic net is one of the most widely used feature selectors. However, the features selected are dependant on the training data, and their weights dedicated for regularized regression are irrelevant to their importance if used for feature ranking, that degrades the model interpretability and extension. In this study, an intuitive idea is put at the end of multiple times of data splitting and elastic net based feature selection. It concerns the frequency of selected features and uses the frequency as an indicator of feature importance. After features are sorted according to their frequency, linear support vector machine performs the classification in an incremental manner. At last, a compact subset of discriminative features is selected by comparing the prediction performance. Experimental results on breast cancer data sets (BCDR-F03, WDBC, GSE 10810, and GSE 15852) suggest that the proposed framework achieves competitive or superior performance to elastic net and with consistent selection of fewer features. How to further enhance its consistency on high-dimension small-sample-size data sets should be paid more attention in our future work. The proposed framework is accessible online (https://github.com/NicoYuCN/elasticnetFR).
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This paper proposes a two-stage probabilistic load forecasting framework by integrating point forecast as a key probabilistic forecasting feature into PLF. In the first stage, all related features are utilized to train a point forecast model and also obtain the feature importance. In the second stage the forecasting model is trained, taking into consideration point forecast features, as well as selected feature subsets. During the testing period of the forecast model, the final probabilistic load forecast results are leveraged to obtain both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Numerical results obtained from ISO New England demand data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in the hour-ahead load forecasting, which uses the gradient boosting regression for the point forecasting and quantile regression neural networks for the probabilistic forecasting.
Relevant and high-quality data are critical to successful development of machine learning applications. For machine learning applications on dynamic systems equipped with a large number of sensors, such as connected vehicles and robots, how to find relevant and high-quality data features in an efficient way is a challenging problem. In this work, we address the problem of feature selection in constrained continuous data acquisition. We propose a feedback-based dynamic feature selection algorithm that efficiently decides on the feature set for data collection from a dynamic system in a step-wise manner. We formulate the sequential feature selection procedure as a Markov Decision Process. The machine learning model performance feedback with an exploration component is used as the reward function in an $epsilon$-greedy action selection. Our evaluation shows that the proposed feedback-based feature selection algorithm has superior performance over constrained baseline methods and matching performance with unconstrained baseline methods.
The construction cost index is an important indicator in the construction industry. Predicting CCI has great practical significance. This paper combines information fusion with machine learning, and proposes a Multi-feature Fusion framework for time series forecasting. MFF uses a sliding window algorithm and proposes a function sequence to convert the time sequence into a feature sequence for information fusion. MFF replaces the traditional information method with machine learning to achieve information fusion, which greatly improves the CCI prediction effect. MFF is of great significance to CCI and time series forecasting.
Electricity load forecasting is crucial for the power systems planning and maintenance. However, its un-stationary and non-linear characteristics impose significant difficulties in anticipating future demand. This paper proposes a novel ensemble deep Random Vector Functional Link (edRVFL) network for electricity load forecasting. The weights of hidden layers are randomly initialized and kept fixed during the training process. The hidden layers are stacked to enforce deep representation learning. Then, the model generates the forecasts by ensembling the outputs of each layer. Moreover, we also propose to augment the random enhancement features by empirical wavelet transformation (EWT). The raw load data is decomposed by EWT in a walk-forward fashion, not introducing future data leakage problems in the decomposition process. Finally, all the sub-series generated by the EWT, including raw data, are fed into the edRVFL for forecasting purposes. The proposed model is evaluated on twenty publicly available time series from the Australian Energy Market Operator of the year 2020. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed models superior performance over eleven forecasting methods in three error metrics and statistical tests on electricity load forecasting tasks.
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