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Register a new userExploiting Vulnerabilities of Load Forecasting Through Adversarial Attacks
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Added by
Yize Chen
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Load forecasting plays a critical role in the operation and planning of power systems. By using input features such as historical loads and weather forecasts, system operators and utilities build forecast models to guide decision making in commitment and dispatch. As the forecasting techniques becomes more sophisticated, however, they also become more vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. In this paper, we study the vulnerability of a class of load forecasting algorithms and analyze the potential impact on the power system operations, such as load shedding and increased dispatch costs. Specifically, we propose data injection attack algorithms that require minimal assumptions on the ability of the adversary. The attacker does not need to have knowledge about the load forecasting model or the underlying power system. Surprisingly, our results indicate that standard load forecasting algorithms are quite vulnerable to the designed black-box attacks. By only injecting malicious data in temperature from online weather forecast APIs, an attacker could manipulate load forecasts in arbitrary directions and cause significant and targeted damages to system operations.
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We study the security threats of power system operation brought by a class of data injection attacks upon load forecasting algorithms. In particular, with minimal assumptions on the knowledge and ability of the attacker, we design attack data on input features for load forecasting algorithms in a black-box approach. System operators can be oblivious of such wrong load forecasts, which lead to uneconomical or even insecure decisions in commitment and dispatch. This paper is the first attempt to bring up the security issues of load forecasting algorithms to our knowledge, and show that accurate load forecasting algorithm is not necessarily robust to malicious attacks. More severely, attackers are able to design targeted attacks on system operations strategically with additional topology information. We demonstrate the impact of load forecasting attacks on two IEEE test cases. We show our attack strategy is able to cause load shedding with high probability under various settings in the 14-bus test case, and also demonstrate system-wide threats in the 118-bus test case with limited local attacks.
In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration. Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner. Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation capability, the proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way. The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
It has been widely recognized that adversarial examples can be easily crafted to fool deep networks, which mainly root from the locally non-linear behavior nearby input examples. Applying mixup in training provides an effective mechanism to improve generalization performance and model robustness against adversarial perturbations, which introduces the globally linear behavior in-between training examples. However, in previous work, the mixup-trained models only passively defend adversarial attacks in inference by directly classifying the inputs, where the induced global linearity is not well exploited. Namely, since the locality of the adversarial perturbations, it would be more efficient to actively break the locality via the globality of the model predictions. Inspired by simple geometric intuition, we develop an inference principle, named mixup inference (MI), for mixup-trained models. MI mixups the input with other random clean samples, which can shrink and transfer the equivalent perturbation if the input is adversarial. Our experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 demonstrate that MI can further improve the adversarial robustness for the models trained by mixup and its variants.
We consider a control problem involving several agents coupled through multiple unit-demand resources. Such resources are indivisible, and each agents consumption is modeled as a Bernoulli random variable. Controlling the number of such agents in a probabilistic manner, subject to capacity constraints, is ubiquitous in smart cities. For instance, such agents can be humans in a feedback loop---who respond to a price signal, or automated decision-support systems that strive toward system-level goals. In this paper, we consider both single feedback loop corresponding to a single resource and multiple coupled feedback loops corresponding to multiple resources consumed by the same population of agents. For example, when a network of devices allocates resources to deliver several services, these services are coupled through capacity constraints on the resources. We propose a new algorithm with fundamental guarantees of convergence and optimality, as well as present an example illustrating its performance.
Kalman filters and observers are two main classes of dynamic state estimation (DSE) routines. Power system DSE has been implemented by various Kalman filters, such as the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). In this paper, we discuss two challenges for an effective power system DSE: (a) model uncertainty and (b) potential cyber attacks. To address this, the cubature Kalman filter (CKF) and a nonlinear observer are introduced and implemented. Various Kalman filters and the observer are then tested on the 16-machine, 68-bus system given realistic scenarios under model uncertainty and different types of cyber attacks against synchrophasor measurements. It is shown that CKF and the observer are more robust to model uncertainty and cyber attacks than their counterparts. Based on the tests, a thorough qualitative comparison is also performed for Kalman filter routines and observers.
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