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Register a new userExtreme time-integrated geomagnetic activity: Ap index statistics
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We analyze statistically extreme time-integrated Ap events in 1958-2007, which occurred during both strong and weak geomagnetic storms. The tail of the distribution of such events can be accurately fitted by a power-law with a sharp upper cutoff, in close agreement with a second fit inferred from Extreme Value Theory. Such a behavior is suggestive of a self-organization of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system appearing during strong and sustained solar wind driving. The 1 in 10 years to 1 in 100 years return levels of such extreme events are calculated, taking into account possible solar cycle modulations. The huge October 2003 event turns out to be a 1 in 100 (+/- 40) years event. Comparisons with the distribution of extreme time-integrated aa events collected in 1870-2010 support the reliability of our results over the long run. Using data from Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellites and the Van Allen Probes, we show that extreme time-integrated $ap$ events produce hard fluxes of energetic electrons and ions in the magnetotail and high fluxes (>1000 000 e/cm2/sr/s/MeV) of 1.8 MeV electrons in the heart of the outer radiation belt.
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Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are main drivers of the most powerful non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. In the extreme-ultraviolet range, CMEs are accompanied by bright post-eruption arcades and dark dimmings. The analysis of events of the Solar Cycle 23 (Chertok et al., 2013, Solar Phys. 282, 175) revealed that the summarized unsigned magnetic flux in the arcades and dimming regions at the photospheric level, $Phi$, is significantly related to the intensity (Dst index) of geomagnetic storms. This provides the basis for the earliest diagnosis of geoefficiency of solar eruptions. In the present article, using the same data set, we find that a noticeable correlation exists also between the eruptive magnetic flux, $Phi$, and another geomagnetic index, Ap. As the magnetic flux increases from tens to $approx 500$ (in units of $10^{20}$ Mx), the geomagnetic storm intensity measured by the 3-hour Ap index, enhances in average from Ap $approx 50$ to a formally maximum value of 400 (in units of 2 nT). The established relationship shows that in fact the real value of the Ap index is not limited and during the most severe magnetic storms may significantly exceed 400.
In this paper we show that the simple analysis of the local geomagnetic field behaviour can serve as reliable imminent precursor for regional seismic activity increasing. As the first step the problem was investigated using one- component Dubna fluxgate magnetometer. The result of 2001-2004 Sofia monitoring confirmed many old papers for connection between Earth tide (Sun- Moon tides as earthquakes trigger) and jump (Geomagnetic quake) of daily averaged one minute standart deviation of the geomagnetic field. The second step (2004-present), which included analisys of three-component Danish fluxgate magnetometer data, worked in Skopje Seismological observatory, confirmed the first step result. The analysis of INTERMAGNET data stations around which was happened stronger earthquakes also confirmed our result. The distribution of time difference between the times of such earthquakes and local daily averaged tide vector movement for impending tide extreme confirms our estimate that the increasing seismicity is realized in time window about +/- 2.7 days. The Complex program for researching the possibility for when, where and how earthquakes prediction is proposed as well as the short description of FORTRAN codes for analysis of earthquakes, geomagnetic and tide data, their correlations and visualization.
We consider a one-dimensional gas of $N$ charged particles confined by an external harmonic potential and interacting via the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. For this system we show that in equilibrium the charges settle, on an average, uniformly and symmetrically on a finite region centred around the origin. We study the statistics of the position of the rightmost particle $x_{max}$ and show that the limiting distribution describing its typical fluctuations is different from the Tracy-Widom distribution found in the one-dimensional log-gas. We also compute the large deviation functions which characterise the atypical fluctuations of $x_{max}$ far away from its mean value. In addition, we study the gap between the two rightmost particles as well as the index $N_+$, i.e., the number of particles on the positive semi-axis. We compute the limiting distributions associated to the typical fluctuations of these observables as well as the corresponding large deviation functions. We provide numerical supports to our analytical predictions. Part of these results were announced in a recent Letter, Phys. Rev. Lett. 119, 060601 (2017).
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Yu. V. Lipko
, A.Yu. Pasinin
, R. A. Rakhmatulin (Institute ofn Solar-Terrestrial Physics
2001
In this paper the interrelation between geomagnetic pulsations and variations in frequency Doppler shift (Fd) of the ionosphere-reflected radio signal is under investigation. The experiment on simultaneous recording of Fd variations and geomagnetic pulsations was organised at high latitude station in Norilsk (geomagnetic latitude and longitude 64.2 N, 160.4 E, L=5.3) during Febrary-April of 1995-98. Thirty cases of simultaneous recording of duration from 10 min to two hour were analysed: 6 cases of simultaneous recording of variations Fd and regular geomagnetic pulsations Pc5; and 25 cases of recording of Fd variations and irregular pulsations Pi2. On the basis of experimental results, the following conclusions have been drawn: a) Hydromagnetic waves in the range of regular Pc5 pulsations, when interacting with the ionospheric F2 layer, make the main contribution to short-period Fd variations. The possible mechanism of Fd variations are oscillations of electron density, associated with distribution of a hydromagnetic wave in an ionosphere. b) There exists an unquestionable interrelation between Fd variations of the sporadic E layer-reflected radio signal and irregular Pi2 pulsations, but for some reasons it is traced poorly.
The time evolution of the strength of the Earths virtual axial dipole moment (VADM) is analyzed by relating it to the Fokker-Planck equation, which describes a random walk with VADM-dependent drift and diffusion coefficients. We demonstrate first that our method is able to retrieve the correct shape of the drift and diffusion coefficients from a time series generated by a test model. Analysis of the Sint-2000 data shows that the geomagnetic dipole mode has a linear growth time of 13 to 33 kyr, and that the nonlinear quenching of the growth rate follows a quadratic function of the type [1-(x/x0)^2]. On theoretical grounds, the diffusive motion of the VADM is expected to be driven by multiplicative noise, and the corresponding diffusion coefficient to scale quadratically with dipole strength. However, analysis of the Sint-2000 VADM data reveals a diffusion which depends only very weakly on the dipole strength. This may indicate that the magnetic field quenches the amplitude of the turbulent velocity in the Earths outer core.
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