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Register a new userRelationship between the Magnetic Flux of Solar Eruptions and the Ap Index of Geomagnetic Storms
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I. M. Chertok
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Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are main drivers of the most powerful non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. In the extreme-ultraviolet range, CMEs are accompanied by bright post-eruption arcades and dark dimmings. The analysis of events of the Solar Cycle 23 (Chertok et al., 2013, Solar Phys. 282, 175) revealed that the summarized unsigned magnetic flux in the arcades and dimming regions at the photospheric level, $Phi$, is significantly related to the intensity (Dst index) of geomagnetic storms. This provides the basis for the earliest diagnosis of geoefficiency of solar eruptions. In the present article, using the same data set, we find that a noticeable correlation exists also between the eruptive magnetic flux, $Phi$, and another geomagnetic index, Ap. As the magnetic flux increases from tens to $approx 500$ (in units of $10^{20}$ Mx), the geomagnetic storm intensity measured by the 3-hour Ap index, enhances in average from Ap $approx 50$ to a formally maximum value of 400 (in units of 2 nT). The established relationship shows that in fact the real value of the Ap index is not limited and during the most severe magnetic storms may significantly exceed 400.
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This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.
Coronal magnetic flux ropes are generally considered to be the core structure of large-scale solar eruptions. Recent observations found that solar eruptions could be initiated by a sequence of flux feeding, during which chromospheric fibrils rise upward from below, and merge with a pre-existing prominence. Further theoretical study has confirmed that the flux feeding mechanism is efficient in causing the eruption of flux ropes that are wrapped by bald patch separatrix surfaces. But it is unclear how flux feeding influences coronal flux ropes that are wrapped by hyperbolic flux tubes (HFT), and whether it is able to cause the flux-rope eruption. In this paper, we use a 2.5-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model to simulate the flux feeding processes in HFT configurations. It is found that flux feeding injects axial magnetic flux into the flux rope, whereas the poloidal flux of the rope is reduced after flux feeding. Flux feeding is able to cause the flux rope to erupt, provided that the injected axial flux is large enough so that the critical axial flux of the rope is reached. Otherwise, the flux rope system evolves to a stable equilibrium state after flux feeding, which might be even farther away from the onset of the eruption, indicating that flux feeding could stabilize the rope system with the HFT configuration in this circumstance.
Magnetic flux ropes are topological structures consisting of twisted magnetic field lines that globally wrap around an axis. The torus instability model predicts that a magnetic flux rope of major radius $R$ undergoes an eruption when its axis reaches a location where the decay index $-d(ln B_{ex})/d(ln R)$ of the ambient magnetic field $B_{ex}$ is larger than a critical value. In the current-wire model, the critical value depends on the thickness and time-evolution of the current channel. We use magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) simulations to investigate if the critical value of the decay index at the onset of the eruption is affected by the magnetic flux ropes internal current profile and/or by the particular pre-eruptive photospheric dynamics. The evolution of an asymmetric, bipolar active region is driven by applying different classes of photospheric motions. We find that the critical value of the decay index at the onset of the eruption is not significantly affected by either the pre-eruptive photospheric evolution of the active region or by the resulting different magnetic flux ropes. As in the case of the current-wire model, we find that there is a `critical range $ [1.3-1.5]$, rather than a `critical value for the onset of the torus instability. This range is in good agreement with the predictions of the current-wire model, despite the inclusion of line-tying effects and the occurrence of tether-cutting magnetic reconnection.
Geomagnetic activity is often described using summary indices to summarize the likelihood of space weather impacts, as well as when parameterizing space weather models. The geomagnetic index $text{K}_text{p}$ in particular, is widely used for these purposes. Current state-of-the-art forecast models provide deterministic $text{K}_text{p}$ predictions using a variety of methods -- including empirically-derived functions, physics-based models, and neural networks -- but do not provide uncertainty estimates associated with the forecast. This paper provides a sample methodology to generate a 3-hour-ahead $text{K}_text{p}$ prediction with uncertainty bounds and from this provide a probabilistic geomagnetic storm forecast. Specifically, we have used a two-layered architecture to separately predict storm ($text{K}_text{p}geq 5^-$) and non-storm cases. As solar wind-driven models are limited in their ability to predict the onset of transient-driven activity we also introduce a model variant using solar X-ray flux to assess whether simple models including proxies for solar activity can improve the predictions of geomagnetic storm activity with lead times longer than the L1-to-Earth propagation time. By comparing the performance of these models we show that including operationally-available information about solar irradiance enhances the ability of predictive models to capture the onset of geomagnetic storms and that this can be achieved while also enabling probabilistic forecasts.
We present the analysis of an unusual failed eruption captured in high cadence and in many wavelengths during the observing campaign in support of the VAULT2.0 sounding rocket launch. The refurbished Very high Angular resolution Ultraviolet Telescope (VAULT2.0) is a Ly$alpha$ ($lambda$ 1216 {AA}) spectroheliograph launched on September 30, 2014. The campaign targeted active region NOAA AR 12172 and was closely coordinated with the Hinode and IRIS missions and several ground-based observatories (NSO/IBIS, SOLIS, and BBSO). A filament eruption accompanied by a low level flaring event (at the GOES C-class level) occurred around the VAULT2.0 launch. No Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed. The eruption and its source region, however, were recorded by the campaign instruments in many atmospheric heights ranging from the photosphere to the corona in high cadence and spatial resolution. This is a rare occasion which enables us to perform a comprehensive investigation on a failed eruption. We find that a rising Magnetic Flux Rope-like (MFR) structure was destroyed during its interaction with the ambient magnetic field creating downflows of cool plasma and diffuse hot coronal structures reminiscent of cusps. We employ magnetofrictional simulations to show that the magnetic topology of the ambient field is responsible for the destruction of the MFR. Our unique observations suggest that the magnetic topology of the corona is a key ingredient for a successful eruption.
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