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Register a new userInferring the size of the causal universe: features and fusion of causal attribution networks
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Added by
James Bagrow
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Cause-and-effect reasoning, the attribution of effects to causes, is one of the most powerful and unique skills humans possess. Multiple surveys are mapping out causal attributions as networks, but it is unclear how well these efforts can be combined. Further, the total size of the collective causal attribution network held by humans is currently unknown, making it challenging to assess the progress of these surveys. Here we study three causal attribution networks to determine how well they can be combined into a single network. Combining these networks requires dealing with ambiguous nodes, as nodes represent written descriptions of causes and effects and different descriptions may exist for the same concept. We introduce NetFUSES, a method for combining networks with ambiguous nodes. Crucially, treating the different causal attributions networks as independent samples allows us to use their overlap to estimate the total size of the collective causal attribution network. We find that existing surveys capture 5.77% $pm$ 0.781% of the $approx$293 000 causes and effects estimated to exist, and 0.198% $pm$ 0.174% of the $approx$10 200 000 attributed cause-effect relationships.
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A Universe with finite age also has a finite causal scale. Larger scales can not affect our local measurements or modeling, but far away locations could have different cosmological parameters. The size of our causal Universe depends on the details of inflation and is usually assumed to be larger than our observable Universe today. To account for causality, we propose a new boundary condition, that can be fulfill by fixing the cosmological constant (a free geometric parameter of gravity). This forces a cancellation of vacuum energy with the cosmological constant. As a consequence, the measured cosmic acceleration can not be explained by a simple cosmological constant or constant vacuum energy. We need some additional odd properties such as the existence of evolving dark energy (DE) with energy-density fine tuned to be twice that of dark matter today. We show here that we can instead explain cosmic acceleration without DE (or modified gravity) assuming that the causal scale is smaller than the observable Universe today. Such scale corresponds to half the sky at z=1 and 60 degrees at z=1100, which is consistent with the anomalous lack of correlations observed in the CMB. Late time cosmic acceleration could then be interpreted as the smoking gun of primordial Inflation.
Accurately and efficiently crowdsourcing complex, open-ended tasks can be difficult, as crowd participants tend to favor short, repetitive microtasks. We study the crowdsourcing of large networks where the crowd provides the network topology via microtasks. Crowds can explore many types of social and information networks, but we focus on the network of causal attributions, an important network that signifies cause-and-effect relationships. We conduct experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) testing how workers propose and validate individual causal relationships and introduce a method for independent crowd workers to explore large networks. The core of the method, Iterative Pathway Refinement, is a theoretically-principled mechanism for efficient exploration via microtasks. We evaluate the method using synthetic networks and apply it on AMT to extract a large-scale causal attribution network, then investigate the structure of this network as well as the activity patterns and efficiency of the workers who constructed this network. Worker interactions reveal important characteristics of causal perception and the network data they generate can improve our understanding of causality and causal inference.
Quantum networks play a key role in many scenarios of quantum information theory. Here we consider the quantum causal networks in the manner of entropy. First we present a revised smooth max-relative entropy of quantum combs, then we present a lower and upper bound of a type II error of the hypothesis testing. Next we present a lower bound of the smooth max-relative entropy for the quantum combs with asymptotic equipartition. At last, we consider the score to quantify the performance of an operator. We present a quantity equaling to the smooth asymptotic version of the performance of a quantum positive operator.
Fact checking by professionals is viewed as a vital defense in the fight against misinformation.While fact checking is important and its impact has been significant, fact checks could have limited visibility and may not reach the intended audience, such as those deeply embedded in polarized communities. Concerned citizens (i.e., the crowd), who are users of the platforms where misinformation appears, can play a crucial role in disseminating fact-checking information and in countering the spread of misinformation. To explore if this is the case, we conduct a data-driven study of misinformation on the Twitter platform, focusing on tweets related to the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzing the spread of misinformation, professional fact checks, and the crowd response to popular misleading claims about COVID-19. In this work, we curate a dataset of false claims and statements that seek to challenge or refute them. We train a classifier to create a novel dataset of 155,468 COVID-19-related tweets, containing 33,237 false claims and 33,413 refuting arguments.Our findings show that professional fact-checking tweets have limited volume and reach. In contrast, we observe that the surge in misinformation tweets results in a quick response and a corresponding increase in tweets that refute such misinformation. More importantly, we find contrasting differences in the way the crowd refutes tweets, some tweets appear to be opinions, while others contain concrete evidence, such as a link to a reputed source. Our work provides insights into how misinformation is organically countered in social platforms by some of their users and the role they play in amplifying professional fact checks.These insights could lead to development of tools and mechanisms that can empower concerned citizens in combating misinformation. The code and data can be found in http://claws.cc.gatech.edu/covid_counter_misinformation.html.
To reach a broader audience and optimize traffic toward news articles, media outlets commonly run social media accounts and share their content with a short text summary. Despite its importance of writing a compelling message in sharing articles, the research community does not own a sufficient understanding of what kinds of editing strategies effectively promote audience engagement. In this study, we aim to fill the gap by analyzing media outlets current practices using a data-driven approach. We first build a parallel corpus of original news articles and their corresponding tweets that eight media outlets shared. Then, we explore how those media edited tweets against original headlines and the effects of such changes. To estimate the effects of editing news headlines for social media sharing in audience engagement, we present a systematic analysis that incorporates a causal inference technique with deep learning; using propensity score matching, it allows for estimating potential (dis-)advantages of an editing style compared to counterfactual cases where a similar news article is shared with a different style. According to the analyses of various editing styles, we report common and differing effects of the styles across the outlets. To understand the effects of various editing styles, media outlets could apply our easy-to-use tool by themselves.
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