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Register a new userEfficient Crowd Exploration of Large Networks: The Case of Causal Attribution
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Added by
James Bagrow
Publication date
2018
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Accurately and efficiently crowdsourcing complex, open-ended tasks can be difficult, as crowd participants tend to favor short, repetitive microtasks. We study the crowdsourcing of large networks where the crowd provides the network topology via microtasks. Crowds can explore many types of social and information networks, but we focus on the network of causal attributions, an important network that signifies cause-and-effect relationships. We conduct experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) testing how workers propose and validate individual causal relationships and introduce a method for independent crowd workers to explore large networks. The core of the method, Iterative Pathway Refinement, is a theoretically-principled mechanism for efficient exploration via microtasks. We evaluate the method using synthetic networks and apply it on AMT to extract a large-scale causal attribution network, then investigate the structure of this network as well as the activity patterns and efficiency of the workers who constructed this network. Worker interactions reveal important characteristics of causal perception and the network data they generate can improve our understanding of causality and causal inference.
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Allowing members of the crowd to propose novel microtasks for one another is an effective way to combine the efficiencies of traditional microtask work with the inventiveness and hypothesis generation potential of human workers. However, microtask proposal leads to a growing set of tasks that may overwhelm limited crowdsourcer resources. Crowdsourcers can employ methods to utilize their resources efficiently, but algorithmic approaches to efficient crowdsourcing generally require a fixed task set of known size. In this paper, we introduce *cost forecasting* as a means for a crowdsourcer to use efficient crowdsourcing algorithms with a growing set of microtasks. Cost forecasting allows the crowdsourcer to decide between eliciting new tasks from the crowd or receiving responses to existing tasks based on whether or not new tasks will cost less to complete than existing tasks, efficiently balancing resources as crowdsourcing occurs. Experiments with real and synthetic crowdsourcing data show that cost forecasting leads to improved accuracy. Accuracy and efficiency gains for crowd-generated microtasks hold the promise to further leverage the creativity and wisdom of the crowd, with applications such as generating more informative and diverse training data for machine learning applications and improving the performance of user-generated content and question-answering platforms.
Cause-and-effect reasoning, the attribution of effects to causes, is one of the most powerful and unique skills humans possess. Multiple surveys are mapping out causal attributions as networks, but it is unclear how well these efforts can be combined. Further, the total size of the collective causal attribution network held by humans is currently unknown, making it challenging to assess the progress of these surveys. Here we study three causal attribution networks to determine how well they can be combined into a single network. Combining these networks requires dealing with ambiguous nodes, as nodes represent written descriptions of causes and effects and different descriptions may exist for the same concept. We introduce NetFUSES, a method for combining networks with ambiguous nodes. Crucially, treating the different causal attributions networks as independent samples allows us to use their overlap to estimate the total size of the collective causal attribution network. We find that existing surveys capture 5.77% $pm$ 0.781% of the $approx$293 000 causes and effects estimated to exist, and 0.198% $pm$ 0.174% of the $approx$10 200 000 attributed cause-effect relationships.
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