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Register a new userDynamic Analysis of a Predator and Prey Model with Some Computational Simulations
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Added by
Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw
Publication date
2017
fields
Biology
and research's language is
English
Authors
Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw
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Mathematical modelling and numerical simulations of interaction populations are crucial topics in systems biology. The interactions of ecological models may occur among individuals of the same species or individuals of different species. Describing the dynamics of such models occasionally requires some techniques of model analysis. Choosing appropriate techniques of model analysis is often a difficult task. We define a prey (mouse) and predator (cat) model. The system is modelled by a pair of non-linear ordinary differential equations using mass action law, under constant rates. A proper scaling is suggested to minimize the number of parameters. More interestingly, we propose a homotopy technique with n expanding parame- ters for finding some analytical approximate solutions. Furthermore, using the local sensitivity method is another important step forward in this study because it helps to identify critical model parameters. Numerical simulations are provided using Matlab for different parameters and initial conditions.
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An evolutionary tree is a cascade of bifurcations starting from a single common root, generating a growing set of daughter species as time goes by. Species here is a general denomination for biological species, spoken languages or any other entity evolving through heredity. From the N currently alive species within a clade, distances are measured through pairwise comparisons made by geneticists, linguists, etc. The larger is such a distance for a pair of species, the older is their last common ancestor. The aim is to reconstruct the past unknown bifurcations, i.e. the whole clade, from the knowledge of the N(N-1)/2 quoted distances taken for granted. A mechanical method is presented, and its applicability discussed.
We present a dynamical model for the price evolution of financial assets. The model is based in a two level structure. In the first stage one finds an agent-based model that describes the present state of the investors beliefs, perspectives or strategies. The dynamics is inspired by a model for describing predator-prey population evolution: agents change their mind through self- or mutual interaction, and the decision is adopted on a random basis, with no direct influence of the price itself. One of the most appealing properties of such a system is the presence of large oscillations in the number of agents sharing the same perspective, what may be linked with the existence of bullish and bearish periods in financial markets. In the second stage one has the pricing mechanism, which will be driven by the relative population in the different investors groups. The price equation will depend on the specific nature of the species, and thus it may change from one market to the other: we will firstly present a simple model of excess demand, and subsequently consider a more elaborate liquidity model. The outcomes of both models are analysed and compared.
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic, and only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections within weeks is unlikely. The emergence of a later second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A sufficiently powerful tracking and tracing policy--implemented at the time of writing (10th May 2020)--will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with less than 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation, using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies.
Noise induced changes in the critical and oscillatory behavior of a Prey-Predator system are studied using power spectrum density and Spectral Amplification Factor (SAF) analysis. In the absence of external noise, the population densities exhibit three kinds of asymptotic behavior, namely: Absorbing State, Fixed Point (FP) and an Oscillatory Regime (OR) with a well defined proper (natural) frequency. The addition of noise destabilizes the FP phase inducing a transition to a new OR. Surprisingly, it is found that when a periodic signal is added to the control parameter, the system responds robustly, without relevant changes in its behavior. Nevertheless, the Coherent Stochastic Resonance phenomenon is found only at the proper frequency. Also, a method based on SAF allows us to locate very accurately the transition points between the different regimes.
Trait-mediated indirect effects are increasingly acknowledged as important components in the dynamics of ecological systems. The hamiltonian form of the LV equations is traditionally modified by adding density dependence to the prey variable and functional response to the predator variable. Enriching these non-linear elements with a trait-mediation added to the carrying capacity of the prey creates the dynamics of critical transitions and hysteretic zones.
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