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Register a new userPicking Winners in Daily Fantasy Sports Using Integer Programming
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Added by
Juan Pablo Vielma
Publication date
2016
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We consider the problem of selecting a portfolio of entries of fixed cardinality for contests with top-heavy payoff structures, i.e. most of the winnings go to the top-ranked entries. This framework is general and can be used to model a variety of problems, such as movie studios selecting movies to produce, venture capital firms picking start-up companies to invest in, or individuals selecting lineups for daily fantasy sports contests, which is the example we focus on here. We model the portfolio selection task as a combinatorial optimization problem with a submodular objective function, which is given by the probability of at least one entry winning. We then show that this probability can be approximated using only pairwise marginal probabilities of the entries winning when there is a certain structure on their joint distribution. We consider a model where the entries are jointly Gaussian random variables and present a closed form approximation to the objective function. Building on this, we then consider a scenario where the entries are given by sums of constrained resources and present an integer programming formulation to construct the entries. Our formulation uses principles based on our theoretical analysis to construct entries: we maximize the expected score of an entry subject to a lower bound on its variance and an upper bound on its correlation with previously constructed entries. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our integer programming approach, we apply it to daily fantasy sports contests that have top-heavy payoff structures. We find that our approach performs well in practice. Using our integer programming approach, we are able to rank in the top-ten multiple times in hockey and baseball contests with thousands of competing entries. Our approach can easily be extended to other problems with constrained resources and a top-heavy payoff structure.
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With an exploding global market and the recent introduction of online cash prize tournaments, fantasy sports contests are quickly becoming a central part of the social gaming and sports industries. For sports fans and online media companies, fantasy sports contests are an opportunity for large financial gains. However, they present a host of technical challenges that arise from the complexities involved in running a web-scale, prize driven fantasy sports platform. We initiate the study of these challenges by examining one concrete problem in particular: how to algorithmically generate contest payout structures that are 1) economically motivating and appealing to contestants and 2) reasonably structured and succinctly representable. We formalize this problem and present a general two-staged approach for producing satisfying payout structures given constraints on contest size, entry fee, prize bucketing, etc. We then propose and evaluate several potential algorithms for solving the payout problem efficiently, including methods based on dynamic programming, integer programming, and heuristic techniques. Experimental results show that a carefully designed heuristic scales very well, even to contests with over 100,000 prize winners. Our approach extends beyond fantasy sports -- it is suitable for generating engaging payout structures for any contest with a large number of entrants and a large number of prize winners, including other massive online games, poker tournaments, and real-life sports tournaments.
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