No Arabic abstract
We developed a code that estimates distances to stars using measured spectroscopic and photometric quantities. We employ a Bayesian approach to build the probability distribution function over stellar evolutionary models given these data, delivering estimates of model parameters for each star individually. The code was first tested on simulations, successfully recovering input distances to mock stars with <1% bias.The method-intrinsic random distance uncertainties for typical spectroscopic survey measurements amount to around 10% for dwarf stars and 20% for giants, and are most sensitive to the quality of $log g$ measurements. The code was validated by comparing our distance estimates to parallax measurements from the Hipparcos mission for nearby stars (< 300 pc), to asteroseismic distances of CoRoT red giant stars, and to known distances of well-studied open and globular clusters. The external comparisons confirm that our distances are subject to very small systematic biases with respect to the fundamental Hipparcos scale (+0.4 % for dwarfs, and +1.6% for giants). The typical random distance scatter is 18% for dwarfs, and 26% for giants. For the CoRoT-APOGEE sample, the typical random distance scatter is ~15%, both for the nearby and farther data. Our distances are systematically larger than the CoRoT ones by about +9%, which can mostly be attributed to the different choice of priors. The comparison to known distances of star clusters from SEGUE and APOGEE has led to significant systematic differences for many cluster stars, but with opposite signs, and with substantial scatter. Finally, we tested our distances against those previously determined for a high-quality sample of giant stars from the RAVE survey, again finding a small systematic trend of +5% and an rms scatter of 30%.
Understanding the formation and evolution of our Galaxy requires accurate distances, ages and chemistry for large populations of field stars. Here we present several updates to our spectro-photometric distance code, that can now also be used to estimate ages, masses, and extinctions for individual stars. Given a set of measured spectro-photometric parameters, we calculate the posterior probability distribution over a given grid of stellar evolutionary models, using flexible Galactic stellar-population priors. The code (called {tt StarHorse}) can acommodate different observational datasets, prior options, partially missing data, and the inclusion of parallax information into the estimated probabilities. We validate the code using a variety of simulated stars as well as real stars with parameters determined from asteroseismology, eclipsing binaries, and isochrone fits to star clusters. Our main goal in this validation process is to test the applicability of the code to field stars with known {it Gaia}-like parallaxes. The typical internal precision (obtained from realistic simulations of an APOGEE+Gaia-like sample) are $simeq 8%$ in distance, $simeq 20%$ in age,$simeq 6 %$ in mass, and $simeq 0.04$ mag in $A_V$. The median external precision (derived from comparisons with earlier work for real stars) varies with the sample used, but lies in the range of $simeq [0,2]%$ for distances, $simeq [12,31]%$ for ages, $simeq [4,12]%$ for masses, and $simeq 0.07$ mag for $A_V$. We provide StarHorse distances and extinctions for the APOGEE DR14, RAVE DR5, GES DR3 and GALAH DR1 catalogues.
Although a catalogue of synthetic RGB magnitudes, providing photometric data for a sample of 1346 bright stars, has been recently published, its usefulness is still limited due to the small number of reference stars available, considering that they are distributed throughout the whole celestial sphere, and the fact that they are restricted to Johnson V < 6.6 mag. This work presents synthetic RGB magnitudes for ~15 million stars brighter than Gaia G = 18 mag, making use of a calibration between the RGB magnitudes of the reference bright star sample and the corresponding high quality photometric G, G_BP and G_RP magnitudes provided by the Gaia EDR3. The calibration has been restricted to stars exhibiting -0.5 < G_BP - G_RP < 2.0 mag, and aims to predict RGB magnitudes within an error interval of $pm 0.1$ mag. Since the reference bright star sample is dominated by nearby stars with slightly undersolar metallicity, systematic variations in the predictions are expected, as modelled with the help of stellar atmosphere models. These deviations are constrained to the $pm 0.1$ mag interval when applying the calibration only to stars scarcely affected by interstellar extinction and with metallicity compatible with the median value for the bright star sample. The large number of Gaia sources available in each region of the sky should guarantee high-quality RGB photometric calibrations.
In determining the distances to stars within the Milky Way galaxy, one often uses photometric or spectroscopic parallax. In these methods, the type of each individual star is determined, and the absolute magnitude of that star type is compared with the measured apparent magnitude to determine individual distances. In this article, we define the term statistical photometric parallax, in which statistical knowledge of the absolute magnitudes of stellar populations is used to determine the underlying density distributions of those stars. This technique has been used to determine the density distribution of the Milky Way stellar halo and its component tidal streams, using very large samples of stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Most recently, the volunteer computing platform MilkyWay@home has been used to find the best fit model parameters for the density of these halo stars.
In `A Bayesian Approach to Locating the Red Giant Branch Tip Magnitude (PART I), a new technique was introduced for obtaining distances using the TRGB standard candle. Here we describe a useful complement to the technique with the potential to further reduce the uncertainty in our distance measurements by incorporating a matched-filter weighting scheme into the model likelihood calculations. In this scheme, stars are weighted according to their probability of being true object members. We then re-test our modified algorithm using random-realization artificial data to verify the validity of the generated posterior probability distributions (PPDs) and proceed to apply the algorithm to the satellite system of M31, culminating in a 3D view of the system. Further to the distributions thus obtained, we apply a satellite-specific prior on the satellite distances to weight the resulting distance posterior distributions, based on the halo density profile. Thus in a single publication, using a single method, a comprehensive coverage of the distances to the companion galaxies of M31 is presented, encompassing the dwarf spheroidals Andromedas I - III, V, IX-XXVII and XXX along with NGC147, NGC 185, M33 and M31 itself. Of these, the distances to Andromeda XXIV - XXVII and Andromeda XXX have never before been derived using the TRGB. Object distances are determined from high-resolution tip magnitude posterior distributions generated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique and associated sampling of these distributions to take into account uncertainties in foreground extinction and the absolute magnitude of the TRGB as well as photometric errors. The distance PPDs obtained for each object both with, and without the aforementioned prior are made available to the reader in tabular form...
A new Bayesian software package for the analysis of pulsar timing data is presented in the form of TempoNest which allows for the robust determination of the non-linear pulsar timing solution simultaneously with a range of additional stochastic parameters. This includes both red spin noise and dispersion measure variations using either power law descriptions of the noise, or through a model-independent method that parameterises the power at individual frequencies in the signal. We use TempoNest to show that at noise levels representative of current datasets in the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) and International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) the linear timing model can underestimate the uncertainties of the timing solution by up to an order of magnitude. We also show how to perform Bayesian model selection between different sets of timing model and stochastic parameters, for example, by demonstrating that in the pulsar B1937+21 both the dispersion measure variations and spin noise in the data are optimally modelled by simple power laws. Finally we show that not including the stochastic parameters simultaneously with the timing model can lead to unpredictable variation in the estimated uncertainties, compromising the robustness of the scientific results extracted from such analysis.