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A Markov Process Inspired Cellular Automata Model of Road Traffic

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 Added by Li Li
 Publication date 2008
  fields Physics
and research's language is English




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To provide a more accurate description of the driving behaviors in vehicle queues, a namely Markov-Gap cellular automata model is proposed in this paper. It views the variation of the gap between two consequent vehicles as a Markov process whose stationary distribution corresponds to the observed distribution of practical gaps. The multiformity of this Markov process provides the model enough flexibility to describe various driving behaviors. Two examples are given to show how to specialize it for different scenarios: usually mentioned flows on freeways and start-up flows at signalized intersections. The agreement between the empirical observations and the simulation results suggests the soundness of this new approach.



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We present a new cellular automata model of vehicular traffic in cities by combining ideas borrowed from the Biham-Middleton-Levine (BML) model of city traffic and the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch) model of highway traffic. The model exhibits a dynamical phase transition to a completely jammed phase at a critical density which depends on the time periods of the synchronized signals.
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City traffic is a dynamic system of enormous complexity. Modeling and predicting city traffic flow remains to be a challenge task and the main difficulties are how to specify the supply and demands and how to parameterize the model. In this paper we attempt to solve these problems with the help of large amount of floating car data. We propose a coarse-grained cellular automata model that simulates vehicles moving on uniform grids whose size are much larger compared with the microscopic cellular automata model. The car-car interaction in the microscopic model is replaced by the coupling between vehicles and coarse-grained state variables in our model. To parameterize the model, flux-occupancy relations are fitted from the historical data at every grids, which serve as the coarse-grained fundamental diagrams coupling the occupancy and speed. To evaluate the model, we feed it with the historical travel demands and trajectories obtained from the floating car data and use the model to predict road speed one hour into the future. Numerical results show that our model can capture the traffic flow pattern of the entire city and make reasonable predictions. The current work can be considered a prototype for a model-based forecasting system for city traffic.
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