Olive cultivation is witnessing a remarkable development in the Syrian Arab
Republic in terms of area cultivated and the number of trees and the quality of
cultivated varieties of olives. The result of this evolution Syria occupied first place in
the Arab and olive production ranked fifth in the world after Spain, Italy, Greece
and Turkey, by passing Tunisia, which occupies the first place was an Arab.
Olive production as dependent variable is affected by much of the factors which can
be considered independent: The number of trees and age of tree and tree type and
amount of rainfall, temperature and location of olive cultivation…… However, the
most important influence on the production of olive is a phenomenon alternate fruit
bearing in fruit trees.This lead to the affected by a time series of olive production, in
addition to the regular periodic of other factors, the general trend and random
factors.
This study aims to provide a new method for modeling and analysis of time series
with a regular cyclical factors and its application to olive production in the Syrian
Arab Republic.
The study to develop an econometric model based on the proposed new method can
be used to predict the production of olive in Syria, and predict the size of production
until 2016. ...
