ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single viewpoint, to drive a simple interplanetary propagation model, which only gives the arrival time or limited additional information. We present the coupling of three established models into OSPREI (Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information), a new tool that describes Sun-to-Earth CME behavior, including the location, orientation, size, shape, speed, arrival time, and internal thermal and magnetic properties, on the timescale needed for forecasts. First, ForeCAT describes the trajectory that a CME takes through the solar corona. Second, ANTEATR simulates the propagation, including expansion and deformation, of a CME in interplanetary space and determines the evolution of internal properties via conservation laws. Finally, FIDO produces in situ profiles for a CMEs interaction with a synthetic spacecraft. OSPREI includes ensemble modeling by varying each input parameter to probe any uncertainty in their values, yielding probabilities for all outputs. Standardized visualizations are automatically generated, providing easily-accessible, essential information for space weather forecasting. We show OSPREI results for a CME observed in the corona on 2021 April 22 and at Earth on 2021 April 25. We approach this CME as a forecasting proof-of-concept, using information analogous to what would be available in real time rather than fine-tuning input parameters to achieve a best fit for a detailed scientific study. The OSPREI prediction shows good agreement with the arrival time and in situ properties.
The evolution and propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space is still not well understood. As a consequence, accurate arrival time and arrival speed forecasts are an unsolved problem in space weather research. In this study,
On July 25 2017 a multi-step Forbush decrease (FD) with the remarkable total amplitude of more than 15% was observed by MSL/RAD at Mars. We find that these particle signatures are related to very pronounced plasma and magnetic field signatures detect
The Sun is an active star that can have a direct impact on the Earth, its magnetosphere, and the technological infrastructure on which modern society depends. Among the phenomena that drive space weather are fast solar wind streams and co-rotating in
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic e
Robots can learn the right reward function by querying a human expert. Existing approaches attempt to choose questions where the robot is most uncertain about the humans response; however, they do not consider how easy it will be for the human to ans