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We report new tests of the critical earthquake concepts performed on rockbursts in deep South African mines. We extend the concept of an optimal time and space correlation region and test it on the eight main shocks of our catalog provided by ISSI. In a first test, we use the simplest signature of criticality in terms of a power law time-to-failure formula. Notwithstanding the fact that the search for the optimal correlation size is performed with this simple power law, we find evidence both for accelerated seismicity and for the presence of logperiodic behavior with a prefered scaling factor close to 2. We then propose a new algorithm based on a space and time smoothing procedure, which is also intended to account for the finite range and time mechanical interactions between events. This new algorithm provides a much more robust and efficient construction of the optimal correlation region, which allows us the use of the logperiodic formula directly in the search process. In this preliminary work, we have only tested the new algorithm on the largest event on the catalog. The result is of remarkable good quality with a dramatic improvement in accuracy and robustness. This confirms the potential importance of logperiodic signals. Our study opens the road for an efficient implemention of a systematic testing procedure of real-time predictions.
We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law time-to-failure before
We propose a new test of the critical earthquake model based on the hypothesis that precursory earthquakes are ``actors that create fluctuations in the stress field which exhibit an increasing correlation length as the critical large event becomes im
In this paper we introduce a new algorithm to study some NP-complete problems. This algorithm is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inspired by the cavity method developed in the study of spin glass. We will focus on the maximum clique problem and we
The Casimir effect in quantum electrodynamics (QED) is perhaps the best-known example of fluctuation-induced long-ranged force acting on objects (conducting plates) immersed in a fluctuating medium (quantum electromagnetic field in vacuum). A similar
The need to unravel modulations hidden in noisy time series of experimental data is a well known problem, traditionally attacked through a variety of methods, among which a popular tool is the so called Lomb-Scargle periodogram. Recently, for a class