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We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law time-to-failure before the final event. Furthermore, the region of correlated seismicity predicted by this model is much greater than would be predicted from simple elasto-dynamic interactions. We present a systematic procedure to test for the accelerating seismicity predicted by the critical point model and to identify the region approaching criticality, based on a comparison between the observed cumulative energy (Benioff strain) release and the power-law behavior predicted by theory. This method is used to find the critical region before all earthquakes along the San Andreas system since 1950 with M 6.5. The statistical significance of our results is assessed by performing the same procedure on a large number of randomly generated synthetic catalogs. The null hypothesis, that the observed acceleration in all these earthquakes could result from spurious patterns generated by our procedure in purely random catalogs, is rejected with 99.5% confidence. An empirical relation between the logarithm of the critical region radius (R) and the magnitude of the final event (M) is found, such that log R mu 0.5 M, suggesting that the largest probable event in a given region scales with the size of the regional fault network.
We report new tests of the critical earthquake concepts performed on rockbursts in deep South African mines. We extend the concept of an optimal time and space correlation region and test it on the eight main shocks of our catalog provided by ISSI. I
We propose a new test of the critical earthquake model based on the hypothesis that precursory earthquakes are ``actors that create fluctuations in the stress field which exhibit an increasing correlation length as the critical large event becomes im
Finite systems may undergo first or second order phase transitions under not isovolumetric but isobaric condition. The `analyticity of a finite-system partition function has been argued to imply universal values for isobaric critical exponents, $alph
Thermal energy agitates all matter and its competition with ordering tendencies is one of the most fundamental organizing principles in the physical world. Thus, it is natural to enquire if an effective temperature could result when external energy i
We have experimentally checked the Jarzynski equality and the Crooks relation on the thermal fluctuations of a macroscopic mechanical oscillator in contact with a heat reservoir. We found that, independently of the time scale and amplitude of the dri