Bridging factor and sparse models

Factor and sparse models are two widely used methods to impose a low-dimensional structure in high-dimension. They are seemingly mutually exclusive. We propose a lifting method that combines the merits of these two models in a supervised learning methodology that allows to efficiently explore all the information in high-dimensional datasets. The method is based on a flexible model for high-dimensional panel data, called factor-augmented regression (FarmPredict) model with both observable or latent common factors, as well as idiosyncratic components. This model not only includes both principal component (factor) regression and sparse regression as specific models but also significantly weakens the cross-sectional dependence and hence facilitates model selection and interpretability. The methodology consists of three steps. At each step, the remaining cross-section dependence can be inferred by a novel test for covariance structure in high-dimensions. We developed asymptotic theory for the FarmPredict model and demonstrated the validity of the multiplier bootstrap for testing high-dimensional covariance structure. This is further extended to testing high-dimensional partial covariance structures. The theory is supported by a simulation study and applications to the construction of a partial covariance network of the financial returns and a prediction exercise for a large panel of macroeconomic time series from FRED-MD database.