ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Time-Series Regeneration with Convolutional Recurrent Generative Adversarial Network for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

144   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Yan Qin
 تاريخ النشر 2021
  مجال البحث الهندسة المعلوماتية
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

For health prognostic task, ever-increasing efforts have been focused on machine learning-based methods, which are capable of yielding accurate remaining useful life (RUL) estimation for industrial equipment or components without exploring the degradation mechanism. A prerequisite ensuring the success of these methods depends on a wealth of run-to-failure data, however, run-to-failure data may be insufficient in practice. That is, conducting a substantial amount of destructive experiments not only is high costs, but also may cause catastrophic consequences. Out of this consideration, an enhanced RUL framework focusing on data self-generation is put forward for both non-cyclic and cyclic degradation patterns for the first time. It is designed to enrich data from a data-driven way, generating realistic-like time-series to enhance current RUL methods. First, high-quality data generation is ensured through the proposed convolutional recurrent generative adversarial network (CR-GAN), which adopts a two-channel fusion convolutional recurrent neural network. Next, a hierarchical framework is proposed to combine generated data into current RUL estimation methods. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed method is verified through both non-cyclic and cyclic degradation systems. With the enhanced RUL framework, an aero-engine system following non-cyclic degradation has been tested using three typical RUL models. State-of-art RUL estimation results are achieved by enhancing capsule network with generated time-series. Specifically, estimation errors evaluated by the index score function have been reduced by 21.77%, and 32.67% for the two employed operating conditions, respectively. Besides, the estimation error is reduced to zero for the Lithium-ion battery system, which presents cyclic degradation.

قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

Physical and cloud storage services are well-served by functioning and reliable high-volume storage systems. Recent observations point to hard disk reliability as one of the most pressing reliability issues in data centers containing massive volumes of storage devices such as HDDs. In this regard, early detection of impending failure at the disk level aids in reducing system downtime and reduces operational loss making proactive health monitoring a priority for AIOps in such settings. In this work, we introduce methods of extracting meaningful attributes associated with operational failure and of pre-processing the highly imbalanced health statistics data for subsequent prediction tasks using data-driven approaches. We use a Bidirectional LSTM with a multi-day look back period to learn the temporal progression of health indicators and baseline them against vanilla LSTM and Random Forest models to come up with several key metrics that establish the usefulness of and superiority of our model under some tightly defined operational constraints. For example, using a 15 day look back period, our approach can predict the occurrence of disk failure with an accuracy of 96.4% considering test data 60 days before failure. This helps to alert operations maintenance well in-advance about potential mitigation needs. In addition, our model reports a mean absolute error of 0.12 for predicting failure up to 60 days in advance, placing it among the state-of-the-art in recent literature.
Time series forecasting based on deep architectures has been gaining popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex non-linear temporal dynamics. The recurrent neural network is one such model capable of handling variable-length inp ut and output. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in deep generative models and the concept of state space models to propose a stochastic adaptation of the recurrent neural network for multistep-ahead time series forecasting, which is trained with stochastic gradient variational Bayes. In our model design, the transition function of the recurrent neural network, which determines the evolution of the hidden states, is stochastic rather than deterministic as in a regular recurrent neural network; this is achieved by incorporating a latent random variable into the transition process which captures the stochasticity of the temporal dynamics. Our model preserves the architectural workings of a recurrent neural network for which all relevant information is encapsulated in its hidden states, and this flexibility allows our model to be easily integrated into any deep architecture for sequential modelling. We test our model on a wide range of datasets from finance to healthcare; results show that the stochastic recurrent neural network consistently outperforms its deterministic counterpart.
The application of remaining useful life (RUL) prediction has taken great importance in terms of energy optimization, cost-effectiveness, and risk mitigation. The existing RUL prediction algorithms mostly constitute deep learning frameworks. In this paper, we implement LSTM and GRU models and compare the obtained results with a proposed genetically trained neural network. The current models solely depend on Adam and SGD for optimization and learning. Although the models have worked well with these optimizers, even little uncertainties in prognostics prediction can result in huge losses. We hope to improve the consistency of the predictions by adding another layer of optimization using Genetic Algorithms. The hyper-parameters - learning rate and batch size are optimized beyond manual capacity. These models and the proposed architecture are tested on the NASA Turbofan Jet Engine dataset. The optimized architecture can predict the given hyper-parameters autonomously and provide superior results.
133 - Hao Peng , Pei Chen , Rui Liu 2021
Making predictions in a robust way is not easy for nonlinear systems. In this work, a neural network computing framework, i.e., a spatiotemporal convolutional network (STCN), was developed to efficiently and accurately render a multistep-ahead predic tion of a time series by employing a spatial-temporal information (STI) transformation. The STCN combines the advantages of both the temporal convolutional network (TCN) and the STI equation, which maps the high-dimensional/spatial data to the future temporal values of a target variable, thus naturally providing the prediction of the target variable. From the observed variables, the STCN also infers the causal factors of the target variable in the sense of Granger causality, which are in turn selected as effective spatial information to improve the prediction robustness. The STCN was successfully applied to both benchmark systems and real-world datasets, all of which show superior and robust performance in multistep-ahead prediction, even when the data were perturbed by noise. From both theoretical and computational viewpoints, the STCN has great potential in practical applications in artificial intelligence (AI) or machine learning fields as a model-free method based only on the observed data, and also opens a new way to explore the observed high-dimensional data in a dynamical manner for machine learning.
In this paper we propose a data augmentation method for time series with irregular sampling, Time-Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (T-CGAN). Our approach is based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN), where the generative s tep is implemented by a deconvolutional NN and the discriminative step by a convolutional NN. Both the generator and the discriminator are conditioned on the sampling timestamps, to learn the hidden relationship between data and timestamps, and consequently to generate new time series. We evaluate our model with synthetic and real-world datasets. For the synthetic data, we compare the performance of a classifier trained with T-CGAN-generated data, against the performance of the same classifier trained on the original data. Results show that classifiers trained on T-CGAN-generated data perform the same as classifiers trained on real data, even with very short time series and small training sets. For the real world datasets, we compare our method with other techniques of data augmentation for time series, such as time slicing and time warping, over a classification problem with unbalanced datasets. Results show that our method always outperforms the other approaches, both in case of regularly sampled and irregularly sampled time series. We achieve particularly good performance in case with a small training set and short, noisy, irregularly-sampled time series.

الأسئلة المقترحة

التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا