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We consider the problem of estimating the probability of a large loss from a financial portfolio, where the future loss is expressed as a conditional expectation. Since the conditional expectation is intractable in most cases, one may resort to nested simulation. To reduce the complexity of nested simulation, we present a method that combines multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC). In the outer simulation, we use Monte Carlo to generate financial scenarios. In the inner simulation, we use QMC to estimate the portfolio loss in each scenario. We prove that using QMC can accelerate the convergence rates in both the crude nested simulation and the multilevel nested simulation. Under certain conditions, the complexity of MLMC can be reduced to $O(epsilon^{-2}(log epsilon)^2)$ by incorporating QMC. On the other hand, we find that MLMC encounters catastrophic coupling problem due to the existence of indicator functions. To remedy this, we propose a smoothed MLMC method which uses logistic sigmoid functions to approximate indicator functions. Numerical results show that the optimal complexity $O(epsilon^{-2})$ is almost attained when using QMC methods in both MLMC and smoothed MLMC, even in moderate high dimensions.
We investigate the problem of computing a nested expectation of the form $mathbb{P}[mathbb{E}[X|Y] !geq!0]!=!mathbb{E}[textrm{H}(mathbb{E}[X|Y])]$ where $textrm{H}$ is the Heaviside function. This nested expectation appears, for example, when estimat
Conditional value at risk (CVaR) is a popular measure for quantifying portfolio risk. Sensitivity analysis of CVaR is very useful in risk management and gradient-based optimization algorithms. In this paper, we study the infinitesimal perturbation an
Stochastic PDE eigenvalue problems often arise in the field of uncertainty quantification, whereby one seeks to quantify the uncertainty in an eigenvalue, or its eigenfunction. In this paper we present an efficient multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC
We propose a novel $hp$-multilevel Monte Carlo method for the quantification of uncertainties in the compressible Navier-Stokes equations, using the Discontinuous Galerkin method as deterministic solver. The multilevel approach exploits hierarchies o
In this work we develop a new hierarchical multilevel approach to generate Gaussian random field realizations in an algorithmically scalable manner that is well-suited to incorporate into multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This ap