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By characterising the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its velocity (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or acceleration, we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were issued. This feature, possibly due to the increase of social awareness, can be rationalised by a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered (SHIR) model introduced by Barnes, in which a hidden (isolated from the virus) compartment $H$ is gradually populated by susceptible people, thus reducing the effectiveness of the virus spreading. By introducing a partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, we obtain a model that, although still sufficiently simple, faithfully reproduces the different deceleration trends observed in several major countries.
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solv
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of this model i
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case stud
In all Countries the political decisions aim to achieve an almost stable configuration with a small number of new infected individuals per day due to Covid-19. When such a condition is reached, the containment effort is usually reduced in favor of a
India has been hit by a huge second wave of Covid-19 that started in mid-February 2021. Mumbai was amongst the first cities to see the increase. In this report, we use our agent based simulator to computationally study the second wave in Mumbai. We b