ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Estimating TVP-VAR models with time invariant long-run multipliers

113   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Ekaterina Krymova
 تاريخ النشر 2020
والبحث باللغة English




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

The main goal of this paper is to develop a methodology for estimating time varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) models with a timeinvariant long-run relationship between endogenous variables and changes in exogenous variables. We propose a Gibbs sampling scheme for estimation of model parameters as well as time-invariant long-run multiplier parameters. Further we demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method by analyzing examples of the Norwegian and Russian economies based on the data on real GDP, real exchange rate and real oil prices. Our results show that incorporating the time invariance constraint on the long-run multipliers in TVP-VAR model helps to significantly improve the forecasting performance.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

Many existing mortality models follow the framework of classical factor models, such as the Lee-Carter model and its variants. Latent common factors in factor models are defined as time-related mortality indices (such as $kappa_t$ in the Lee-Carter m odel). Factor loadings, which capture the linear relationship between age variables and latent common factors (such as $beta_x$ in the Lee-Carter model), are assumed to be time-invariant in the classical framework. This assumption is usually too restrictive in reality as mortality datasets typically span a long period of time. Driving forces such as medical improvement of certain diseases, environmental changes and technological progress may significantly influence the relationship of different variables. In this paper, we first develop a factor model with time-varying factor loadings (time-varying factor model) as an extension of the classical factor model for mortality modelling. Two forecasting methods to extrapolate the factor loadings, the local regression method and the naive method, are proposed for the time-varying factor model. From the empirical data analysis, we find that the new model can capture the empirical feature of time-varying factor loadings and improve mortality forecasting over different horizons and countries. Further, we propose a novel approach based on change point analysis to estimate the optimal `boundary between short-term and long-term forecasting, which is favoured by the local linear regression and naive method, respectively. Additionally, simulation studies are provided to show the performance of the time-varying factor model under various scenarios.
This paper discusses the problem of estimation and inference on the effects of time-varying treatment. We propose a method for inference on the effects treatment histories, introducing a dynamic covariate balancing method combined with penalized regr ession. Our approach allows for (i) treatments to be assigned based on arbitrary past information, with the propensity score being unknown; (ii) outcomes and time-varying covariates to depend on treatment trajectories; (iii) high-dimensional covariates; (iv) heterogeneity of treatment effects. We study the asymptotic properties of the estimator, and we derive the parametric convergence rate of the proposed procedure. Simulations and an empirical application illustrate the advantage of the method over state-of-the-art competitors.
100 - Muhammad Salar Khan 2021
Within the national innovation system literature, empirical analyses are severely lacking for developing economies. Particularly, the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) eligible for the World Banks International Development Association (IDA) su pport, are rarely part of any empirical discourse on growth, development, and innovation. One major issue hindering panel analyses in LMICs, and thus them being subject to any empirical discussion, is the lack of complete data availability. This work offers a new complete panel dataset with no missing values for LMICs eligible for IDAs support. I use a standard, widely respected multiple imputation technique (specifically, Predictive Mean Matching) developed by Rubin (1987). This technique respects the structure of multivariate continuous panel data at the country level. I employ this technique to create a large dataset consisting of many variables drawn from publicly available established sources. These variables, in turn, capture six crucial country-level capacities: technological capacity, financial capacity, human capital capacity, infrastructural capacity, public policy capacity, and social capacity. Such capacities are part and parcel of the National Absorptive Capacity Systems (NACS). The dataset (MSK dataset) thus produced contains data on 47 variables for 82 LMICs between 2005 and 2019. The dataset has passed a quality and reliability check and can thus be used for comparative analyses of national absorptive capacities and development, transition, and convergence analyses among LMICs.
93 - Jiarui Liu 2021
This paper studies sequential search models that (1) incorporate unobserved product quality, which can be correlated with endogenous observable characteristics (such as price) and endogenous search cost variables (such as product rankings in online s earch intermediaries); and (2) do not require researchers to know the true distribution of the match value between consumers and products. A likelihood approach to estimate such models gives biased results. Therefore, I propose a new estimator -- pairwise maximum rank (PMR) estimator -- for both preference and search cost parameters. I show that the PMR estimator is consistent using only data on consumers search order among one pair of products rather than data on consumers full consideration set or final purchase. Additionally, we can use the PMR estimator to test for the true match value distribution in the data. In the empirical application, I apply the PMR estimator to quantify the effect of rankings in Expedia hotel search using two samples of the data set, to which consumers are randomly assigned. I find the position effect to be $0.11-$0.36, and the effect estimated using the sample with randomly generated rankings is close to the effect estimated using the sample with endogenous rankings. Moreover, I find that the true match value distribution in the data is unlikely to be N(0,1). Likelihood estimation ignoring endogeneity gives an upward bias of at least $1.17; misspecification of match value distribution as N(0,1) gives an upward bias of at least $2.99.
We study the causal interpretation of regressions on multiple dependent treatments and flexible controls. Such regressions are often used to analyze randomized control trials with multiple intervention arms, and to estimate institutional quality (e.g . teacher value-added) with observational data. We show that, unlike with a single binary treatment, these regressions do not generally estimate convex averages of causal effects-even when the treatments are conditionally randomly assigned and the controls fully address omitted variables bias. We discuss different solutions to this issue, and propose as a solution anew class of efficient estimators of weighted average treatment effects.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا