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تسجيل مستخدم جديدHow the worlds collective attention is being paid to a pandemic: COVID-19 related n-gram time series for 24 languages on Twitter
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In confronting the global spread of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 pandemic we must have coordinated medical, operational, and political responses. In all efforts, data is crucial. Fundamentally, and in the possible absence of a vaccine for 12 to 18 months, we need universal, well-documented testing for both the presence of the disease as well as confirmed recovery through serological tests for antibodies, and we need to track major socioeconomic indices. But we also need auxiliary data of all kinds, including data related to how populations are talking about the unfolding pandemic through news and stories. To in part help on the social media side, we curate a set of 2000 day-scale time series of 1- and 2-grams across 24 languages on Twitter that are most important for April 2020 with respect to April 2019. We determine importance through our allotaxonometric instrument, rank-turbulence divergence. We make some basic observations about some of the time series, including a comparison to numbers of confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 over time. We broadly observe across all languages a peak for the language-specific word for virus in January 2020 followed by a decline through February and then a surge through March and April. The worlds collective attention dropped away while the virus spread out from China. We host the time series on Gitlab, updating them on a daily basis while relevant. Our main intent is for other researchers to use these time series to enhance whatever analyses that may be of use during the pandemic as well as for retrospective investigations.
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Using a random 10% sample of tweets authored from 2019-09-01 through 2020-04-30, we analyze the dynamic behavior of words (1-grams) used on Twitter to describe the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Across 24 languages, we find two distinct dynamic regimes:
One characterizing the rise and subsequent collapse in collective attention to the initial Coronavirus outbreak in late January, and a second that represents March COVID-19-related discourse. Aggregating countries by dominant language use, we find that volatility in the first dynamic regime is associated with future volatility in new cases of COVID-19 roughly three weeks (average 22.49 $pm$ 3.26 days) later. Our results suggest that surveillance of change in usage of epidemiology-related words on social media may be useful in forecasting later change in disease case numbers, but we emphasize that our current findings are not causal or necessarily predictive.
Disruptions resulting from an epidemic might often appear to amount to chaos but, in reality, can be understood in a systematic way through the lens of epidemic psychology. According to Philip Strong, the founder of the sociological study of epidemic
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