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Stochastic parameterizations account for uncertainty in the representation of unresolved sub-grid processes by sampling from the distribution of possible sub-grid forcings. Some existing stochastic parameterizations utilize data-driven approaches to characterize uncertainty, but these approaches require significant structural assumptions that can limit their scalability. Machine learning models, including neural networks, are able to represent a wide range of distributions and build optimized mappings between a large number of inputs and sub-grid forcings. Recent research on machine learning parameterizations has focused only on deterministic parameterizations. In this study, we develop a stochastic parameterization using the generative adversarial network (GAN) machine learning framework. The GAN stochastic parameterization is trained and evaluated on output from the Lorenz 96 model, which is a common baseline model for evaluating both parameterization and data assimilation techniques. We evaluate different ways of characterizing the input noise for the model and perform model runs with the GAN parameterization at weather and climate timescales. Some of the GAN configurations perform better than a baseline bespoke parameterization at both timescales, and the networks closely reproduce the spatio-temporal correlations and regimes of the Lorenz 96 system. We also find that in general those models which produce skillful forecasts are also associated with the best climate simulations.
A novel method, based on the combination of data assimilation and machine learning is introduced. The new hybrid approach is designed for a two-fold scope: (i) emulating hidden, possibly chaotic, dynamics and (ii) predicting their future states. The
Recently, sampling methods have been successfully applied to enhance the sample quality of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). However, in practice, they typically have poor sample efficiency because of the independent proposal sampling from the
Global climate models represent small-scale processes such as clouds and convection using quasi-empirical models known as parameterizations, and these parameterizations are a leading cause of uncertainty in climate projections. A promising alternativ
A new framework is proposed for the evaluation of stochastic subgrid-scale parameterizations in the context of MAOOAM, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity. Two physically-based parameterizations are investigated, the first one
The advent of generative adversarial networks (GAN) has enabled new capabilities in synthesis, interpolation, and data augmentation heretofore considered very challenging. However, one of the common assumptions in most GAN architectures is the assump