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Accurately forecasting urban development and its environmental and climate impacts critically depends on realistic models of the spatial structure of the built environment, and of its dependence on key factors such as population and economic development. Scenario simulation and sensitivity analysis, i.e., predicting how changes in underlying factors at a given location affect urbanization outcomes at other locations, is currently not achievable at a large scale with traditional urban growth models, which are either too simplistic, or depend on detailed locally-collected socioeconomic data that is not available in most places. Here we develop a framework to estimate, purely from globally-available remote-sensing data and without parametric assumptions, the spatial sensitivity of the (textit{static}) rate of change of urban sprawl to key macroeconomic development indicators. We formulate this spatial regression problem as an image-to-image translation task using conditional generative adversarial networks (GANs), where the gradients necessary for comparative static analysis are provided by the backpropagation algorithm used to train the model. This framework allows to naturally incorporate physical constraints, e.g., the inability to build over water bodies. To validate the spatial structure of model-generated built environment distributions, we use spatial statistics commonly used in urban form analysis. We apply our method to a novel dataset comprising of layers on the built environment, nightlighs measurements (a proxy for economic development and energy use), and population density for the worlds most populous 15,000 cities.
Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) are generative models that can produce data samples ($x$) conditioned on both latent variables ($z$) and known auxiliary information ($c$). We propose the Bidirectional cGAN (BiCoGAN), which effecti
Conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) have led to large improvements in the task of conditional image generation, which lies at the heart of computer vision. The major focus so far has been on performance improvement, while there has bee
Image generation has raised tremendous attention in both academic and industrial areas, especially for the conditional and target-oriented image generation, such as criminal portrait and fashion design. Although the current studies have achieved prel
A Triangle Generative Adversarial Network ($Delta$-GAN) is developed for semi-supervised cross-domain joint distribution matching, where the training data consists of samples from each domain, and supervision of domain correspondence is provided by o
In this paper, we present a conditional GAN with two generators and a common discriminator for multiview learning problems where observations have two views, but one of them may be missing for some of the training samples. This is for example the cas