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In basketball and hockey, state-of-the-art player value statistics are often variants of Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM). But APM hasnt had the same impact in soccer, since soccer games are low scoring with a low number of substitutions. In soccer, perhaps the most comprehensive player value statistics come from video games, and in particular FIFA. FIFA ratings combine the subjective evaluations of over 9000 scouts, coaches, and season-ticket holders into ratings for over 18,000 players. This paper combines FIFA ratings and APM into a single metric, which we call Augmented APM. The key idea is recasting APM into a Bayesian framework, and incorporating FIFA ratings into the prior distribution. We show that Augmented APM predicts better than both standard APM and a model using only FIFA ratings. We also show that Augmented APM decorrelates players that are highly collinear.
Recent theoretical advances applied to metamaterials have opened new avenues to design a coating that hides objects from electromagnetic radiation and even the sight. Here, we propose a new design of cloaking devices that creates perfect invisibility
The classical 1966 theorem of Tverberg with its numerous variations was and still is a motivating force behind many important developments in convex and computational geometry as well as the testing ground for methods from equivariant algebraic topol
This note proposes a penalty criterion for assessing correct score forecasting in a soccer match. The penalty is based on hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact prediction and ii) normalized Euclidian distance b
We propose an approach for the analysis and prediction of a football championship. It is based on Poisson regression models that include the Elo points of the teams as covariates and incorporates differences of team-specific effects. These models for
We study zero-temperature, stochastic Ising models sigma(t) on a d-dimensional cubic lattice with (disordered) nearest-neighbor couplings independently chosen from a distribution mu on R and an initial spin configuration chosen uniformly at random. G