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This note proposes a penalty criterion for assessing correct score forecasting in a soccer match. The penalty is based on hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact prediction and ii) normalized Euclidian distance between actual and forecast scores. The procedure is illustrated on typical scores, and different alternatives on the penalty components are discussed.
In basketball and hockey, state-of-the-art player value statistics are often variants of Adjusted Plus-Minus (APM). But APM hasnt had the same impact in soccer, since soccer games are low scoring with a low number of substitutions. In soccer, perhaps
The problem of evaluating the performance of soccer players is attracting the interest of many companies and the scientific community, thanks to the availability of massive data capturing all the events generated during a match (e.g., tackles, passes
Forecasting accuracy of mortality data is important for the management of pension funds and pricing of life insurance in actuarial science. Age-specific mortality forecasting in the US poses a challenging problem in high dimensional time series analy
Motivated by the evidence that real-world networks evolve in time and may exhibit non-stationary features, we propose an extension of the Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) accommodating the time variation of network parameters. Within the ERGM
Droughts are a recurring hazard in sub-Saharan Africa, that can wreak huge socioeconomic costs.Acting early based on alerts provided by early warning systems (EWS) can potentially provide substantial mitigation, reducing the financial and human cost.