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Real-time crime forecasting is important. However, accurate prediction of when and where the next crime will happen is difficult. No known physical model provides a reasonable approximation to such a complex system. Historical crime data are sparse in both space and time and the signal of interests is weak. In this work, we first present a proper representation of crime data. We then adapt the spatial temporal residual network on the well represented data to predict the distribution of crime in Los Angeles at the scale of hours in neighborhood-sized parcels. These experiments as well as comparisons with several existing approaches to prediction demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model in terms of accuracy. Finally, we present a ternarization technique to address the resource consumption issue for its deployment in real world. This work is an extension of our short conference proceeding paper [Wang et al, Arxiv 1707.03340].
The emergence of real-time auction in online advertising has drawn huge attention of modeling the market competition, i.e., bid landscape forecasting. The problem is formulated as to forecast the probability distribution of market price for each ad a
Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecas
Extreme events are occurrences whose magnitude and potential cause extensive damage on people, infrastructure, and the environment. Motivated by the extreme nature of the current global health landscape, which is plagued by the coronavirus pandemic,
In E-commerce advertising, where product recommendations and product ads are presented to users simultaneously, the traditional setting is to display ads at fixed positions. However, under such a setting, the advertising system loses the flexibility
Recent work has discovered that deep reinforcement learning (DRL) policies are vulnerable to adversarial examples. These attacks mislead the policy of DRL agents by perturbing the state of the environment observed by agents. They are feasible in prin