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We present a Bayesian inference approach to estimating the cumulative mass profile and mean squared velocity profile of a globular cluster given the spatial and kinematic information of its stars. Mock globular clusters with a range of sizes and concentrations are generated from lowered isothermal dynamical models, from which we test the reliability of the Bayesian method to estimate model parameters through repeated statistical simulation. We find that given unbiased star samples, we are able to reconstruct the cluster parameters used to generate the mock cluster and the clusters cumulative mass and mean velocity squared profiles with good accuracy. We further explore how strongly biased sampling, which could be the result of observing constraints, may affect this approach. Our tests indicate that if we instead have biased samples, then our estimates can be off in certain ways that are dependent on cluster morphology. Overall, our findings motivate obtaining samples of stars that are as unbiased as possible. This may be achieved by combining information from multiple telescopes (e.g., Hubble and Gaia), but will require careful modeling of the measurement uncertainties through a hierarchical model, which we plan to pursue in future work.
We consider problems in which a system receives external emph{perturbations} from time to time. For instance, the system can be a train network in which particular lines are repeatedly disrupted without warning, having an effect on passenger behavior
Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be used. In
This paper is concerned with making Bayesian inference from data that are assumed to be drawn from a Bingham distribution. A barrier to the Bayesian approach is the parameter-dependent normalising constant of the Bingham distribution, which, even whe
We describe a new and computationally efficient Bayesian methodology for inferring species trees and demographics from unlinked binary markers. Likelihood calculations are carried out using diffusion models of allele frequency dynamics combined with
We consider inference from non-random samples in data-rich settings where high-dimensional auxiliary information is available both in the sample and the target population, with survey inference being a special case. We propose a regularized predictio