اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدOnline learning of windmill time series using Long Short-term Cognitive Networks
59
0
0.0
(
0
)
نشر من قبل
Alejandro Morales-Hern\\'andez
تاريخ النشر
2021
مجال البحث
الهندسة المعلوماتية
والبحث باللغة
English
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Forecasting windmill time series is often the basis of other processes such as anomaly detection, health monitoring, or maintenance scheduling. The amount of data generated on windmill farms makes online learning the most viable strategy to follow. Such settings require retraining the model each time a new batch of data is available. However, update the model with the new information is often very expensive to perform using traditional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). In this paper, we use Long Short-term Cognitive Networks (LSTCNs) to forecast windmill time series in online settings. These recently introduced neural systems consist of chained Short-term Cognitive Network blocks, each processing a temporal data chunk. The learning algorithm of these blocks is based on a very fast, deterministic learning rule that makes LSTCNs suitable for online learning tasks. The numerical simulations using a case study with four windmills showed that our approach reported the lowest forecasting errors with respect to a simple RNN, a Long Short-term Memory, a Gated Recurrent Unit, and a Hidden Markov Model. What is perhaps more important is that the LSTCN approach is significantly faster than these state-of-the-art models.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) with continuous-time hidden states are a natural fit for modeling irregularly-sampled time series. These models, however, face difficulties when the input data possess long-term dependencies. We prove that similar to
standard RNNs, the underlying reason for this issue is the vanishing or exploding of the gradient during training. This phenomenon is expressed by the ordinary differential equation (ODE) representation of the hidden state, regardless of the ODE solvers choice. We provide a solution by designing a new algorithm based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) that separates its memory from its time-continuous state. This way, we encode a continuous-time dynamical flow within the RNN, allowing it to respond to inputs arriving at arbitrary time-lags while ensuring a constant error propagation through the memory path. We call these RNN models ODE-LSTMs. We experimentally show that ODE-LSTMs outperform advanced RNN-based counterparts on non-uniformly sampled data with long-term dependencies. All code and data is available at https://github.com/mlech26l/ode-lstms.
Time series prediction can be generalized as a process that extracts useful information from historical records and then determines future values. Learning long-range dependencies that are embedded in time series is often an obstacle for most algorit
hms, whereas Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) solutions, as a specific kind of scheme in deep learning, promise to effectively overcome the problem. In this article, we first give a brief introduction to the structure and forward propagation mechanism of the LSTM model. Then, aiming at reducing the considerable computing cost of LSTM, we put forward the Random Connectivity LSTM (RCLSTM) model and test it by predicting traffic and user mobility in telecommunication networks. Compared to LSTM, RCLSTM is formed via stochastic connectivity between neurons, which achieves a significant breakthrough in the architecture formation of neural networks. In this way, the RCLSTM model exhibits a certain level of sparsity, which leads to an appealing decrease in the computational complexity and makes the RCLSTM model become more applicable in latency-stringent application scenarios. In the field of telecommunication networks, the prediction of traffic series and mobility traces could directly benefit from this improvement as we further demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of RCLSTM is comparable to that of the conventional LSTM no matter how we change the number of training samples or the length of input sequences.
Model compression is significant for the wide adoption of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) in both user devices possessing limited resources and business clusters requiring quick responses to large-scale service requests. This work aims to learn stru
cturally-sparse Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) by reducing the sizes of basic structures within LSTM units, including input updates, gates, hidden states, cell states and outputs. Independently reducing the sizes of basic structures can result in inconsistent dimensions among them, and consequently, end up with invalid LSTM units. To overcome the problem, we propose Intrinsic Sparse Structures (ISS) in LSTMs. Removing a component of ISS will simultaneously decrease the sizes of all basic structures by one and thereby always maintain the dimension consistency. By learning ISS within LSTM units, the obtained LSTMs remain regular while having much smaller basic structures. Based on group Lasso regularization, our method achieves 10.59x speedup without losing any perplexity of a language modeling of Penn TreeBank dataset. It is also successfully evaluated through a compact model with only 2.69M weights for machine Question Answering of SQuAD dataset. Our approach is successfully extended to non- LSTM RNNs, like Recurrent Highway Networks (RHNs). Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/wenwei202/iss-rnns
Tropical cyclones can be of varied intensity and cause a huge loss of lives and property if the intensity is high enough. Therefore, the prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones advance in time is of utmost importance. We propose a novel stac
ked bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) based model architecture to predict the intensity of a tropical cyclone in terms of Maximum surface sustained wind speed (MSWS). The proposed model can predict MSWS well advance in time (up to 72 h) with very high accuracy. We have applied the model on tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean from 1982 to 2018 and checked its performance on two recent tropical cyclones, namely, Fani and Vayu. The model predicts MSWS (in knots) for the next 3, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, and 72 hours with a mean absolute error of 1.52, 3.66, 5.88, 7.42, 8.96, 10.15, and 11.92, respectively.
We introduce a novel online multitask setting. In this setting each task is partitioned into a sequence of segments that is unknown to the learner. Associated with each segment is a hypothesis from some hypothesis class. We give algorithms that are d
esigned to exploit the scenario where there are many such segments but significantly fewer associated hypotheses. We prove regret bounds that hold for any segmentation of the tasks and any association of hypotheses to the segments. In the single-task setting this is equivalent to switching with long-term memory in the sense of [Bousquet and Warmuth; 2003]. We provide an algorithm that predicts on each trial in time linear in the number of hypotheses when the hypothesis class is finite. We also consider infinite hypothesis classes from reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces for which we give an algorithm whose per trial time complexity is cubic in the number of cumulative trials. In the single-task special case this is the first example of an efficient regret-bounded switching algorithm with long-term memory for a non-parametric hypothesis class.
الأسئلة المقترحة
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
