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Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different parameters in a synthetic population. Model input includes population characteristics like age, sex, working status etc. of each individual and other factors influencing disease dynamics. Depending on number of epicentres of infection, location of primary cases, sensitivity, proportion of asymptomatic and frequency or duration of lockdown, our simulator tracks every individual and hence infection progression through community over time. In a closed community of 10000 people, it is seen that without any lockdown, number of cases peak around 6th week and wanes off around 15th week. If primary case is located inside dense population cluster like slums, cases peak early and wane off slowly. With introduction of lockdown, cases peak at slower rate. If sensitivity of identifying infection decreases, cases and deaths increase. Number of cases declines with increase in proportion of asymptomatic cases. The model is robust and provides reproducible estimates with realistic parameter values. It also guides in identifying measures to control outbreak in a community. It is flexible in accommodating different parameters like infectivity period, yield of testing, socio-economic strata, daily travel, awareness level, population density, social distancing, lockdown etc. and can be tailored to study other infections with similar transmission pattern.
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported deaths worldw
We present Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) statistics in China dataset: daily statistics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China at the city/county level. For each city/country, we include the six most important numbers for epidemic research: daily new
Some ideas are presented about the physical motivation of the apparent capacity of generalized logistic equations to describe the outbreak of the COVID-19 infection, and in general of quite many other epidemics. The main focuses here are: the complex
In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distanc
A novel approach of adapting social distancing consideration into a SEIR model is presented, where susceptible, exposed and unidentified compartments are collated under the umbrella of the social-distanced compartment. Another key characteristic of t