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The solar X-ray irradiance is significantly heightened during the course of a solar flare, which can cause radio blackouts due to ionization of the atoms in the ionosphere. As the duration of a solar flare is not related to the size of that flare, it is not directly clear how long those blackouts can persist. Using a random forest regression model trained on data taken from X-ray light curves, we have developed a direct forecasting method that predicts how long the event will remain above background levels. We test this on a large collection of flares observed with GOES-15, and show that it generally outperforms simple linear regression. This forecast is computationally light enough to be performed in real time, allowing for the prediction to be made during the course of a flare.
A workshop was recently held at Nagoya University (31 October - 02 November 2017), sponsored by the Center for International Collaborative Research, at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan, to quantitatively
Solar flares significantly impact the conditions of the Earths ionosphere. In particular, the sudden increase in X-ray flux during a flare penetrates down to the lowest-lying D-region and dominates ionization at these altitudes (60-100 km). Measureme
Impulsive solar energetic particle events are widely believed to be due to the prompt escape into the interplanetary medium of flare-accelerated particles produced by solar eruptive events. According to the standard model for such events, however, pa
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand s
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic e