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Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to its extremely high infectivity, has been spreading rapidly around the world and bringing huge influence to socioeconomic development as well as peoples daily life. Taking for example the virus transmission that may occur after college students return to school, we analyze the quantitative influence of the key factors on the virus spread, including crowd density and self-protection. One Campus Virus Infection and Control Simulation model (CVICS) of the novel coronavirus is proposed in this paper, fully considering the characteristics of repeated contact and strong mobility of crowd in the closed environment. Specifically, we build an agent-based infection model, introduce the mean field theory to calculate the probability of virus transmission, and micro-simulate the daily prevalence of infection among individuals. The experimental results show that the proposed model in this paper efficiently simulate how the virus spread in the dense crowd in frequent contact under closed environment. Furthermore, preventive and control measures such as self-protection, crowd decentralization and isolation during the epidemic can effectively delay the arrival of infection peak and reduce the prevalence, and finally lower the risk of COVID-19 transmission after the students return to school.
In this paper we present ACEMod, an agent-based modelling framework for studying influenza epidemics in Australia. The simulator is designed to analyse the spatiotemporal spread of contagion and influenza spatial synchrony across the nation. The indi
Can public social media data be harnessed to predict COVID-19 case counts? We analyzed approximately 15 million COVID-19 related posts on Weibo, a popular Twitter-like social media platform in China, from November 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020. We develo
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures against the epi
This paper deals with the statistical signal pro- cessing over graphs for tracking infection diffusion in social networks. Infection (or Information) diffusion is modeled using the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. Mean field approximatio
Understanding the epidemic dynamics, and finding out efficient techniques to control it, is a challenging issue. A lot of research has been done on targeted immunization strategies, exploiting various global network topological properties. However, i