اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدPredicting seasonal influenza using supermarket retail records
45
0
0.0
(
0
)
اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث
ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.
قيم البحث
اقرأ أيضاً
Software development is becoming increasingly open and collaborative with the advent of platforms such as GitHub. Given its crucial role, there is a need to better understand and model the dynamics of GitHub as a social platform. Previous work has mo
stly considered the dynamics of traditional social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook. We propose GitEvolve, a system to predict the evolution of GitHub repositories and the different ways by which users interact with them. To this end, we develop an end-to-end multi-task sequential deep neural network that given some seed events, simultaneously predicts which user-group is next going to interact with a given repository, what the type of the interaction is, and when it happens. To facilitate learning, we use graph based representation learning to encode relationship between repositories. We map users to groups by modelling common interests to better predict popularity and to generalize to unseen users during inference. We introduce an artificial event type to better model varying levels of activity of repositories in the dataset. The proposed multi-task architecture is generic and can be extended to model information diffusion in other social networks. In a series of experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, using multiple metrics and baselines. Qualitative analysis of the models ability to predict popularity and forecast trends proves its applicability.
Many real-world systems can be expressed in temporal networks with nodes playing far different roles in structure and function and edges representing the relationships between nodes. Identifying critical nodes can help us control the spread of public
opinions or epidemics, predict leading figures in academia, conduct advertisements for various commodities, and so on. However, it is rather difficult to identify critical nodes because the network structure changes over time in temporal networks. In this paper, considering the sequence topological information of temporal networks, a novel and effective learning framework based on the combination of special GCNs and RNNs is proposed to identify nodes with the best spreading ability. The effectiveness of the approach is evaluated by weighted Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. Experimental results on four real-world temporal networks demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms both traditional and deep learning benchmark methods in terms of the Kendall $tau$ coefficient and top $k$ hit rate.
This paper has been withdrawn from arXiv.org due to a disagreement among the authors related to several peer-review comments received prior to submission on arXiv.org. Even though the current version of this paper is withdrawn, there was no disagreem
ent between authors on the novel work in this paper. One specific issue was the discussion of related work by Ikehara & Clauset (found on page 8 of the previously posted version). Peer-review comments on a similar version made ALL authors aware that the discussion misrepresented their work prior to submission to arXiv.org. However, some authors choose to post to arXiv a minimally updated version without the consent of all authors or properly addressing this attribution issue. ================ Original Paper Abstract: Complex networks are often categorized according to the underlying phenomena that they represent such as molecular interactions, re-tweets, and brain activity. In this work, we investigate the problem of predicting the category (domain) of arbitrary networks. This includes complex networks from different domains as well as synthetically generated graphs from five different network models. A classification accuracy of $96.6%$ is achieved using a random forest classifier with both real and synthetic networks. This work makes two important findings. First, our results indicate that complex networks from various domains have distinct structural properties that allow us to predict with high accuracy the category of a new previously unseen network. Second, synthetic graphs are trivial to classify as the classification model can predict with near-certainty the network model used to generate it. Overall, the results demonstrate that networks drawn from different domains (and network models) are trivial to distinguish using only a handful of simple structural properties.
Recent advances in the e-commerce fashion industry have led to an exploration of novel ways to enhance buyer experience via improved personalization. Predicting a proper size for an item to recommend is an important personalization challenge, and is
being studied in this work. Earlier works in this field either focused on modeling explicit buyer fitment feedback or modeling of only a single aspect of the problem (e.g., specific category, brand, etc.). More recent works proposed richer models, either content-based or sequence-based, better accounting for content-based aspects of the problem or better modeling the buyers online journey. However, both these approaches fail in certain scenarios: either when encountering unseen items (sequence-based models) or when encountering new users (content-based models). To address the aforementioned gaps, we propose PreSizE - a novel deep learning framework which utilizes Transformers for accurate size prediction. PreSizE models the effect of both content-based attributes, such as brand and category, and the buyers purchase history on her size preferences. Using an extensive set of experiments on a large-scale e-commerce dataset, we demonstrate that PreSizE is capable of achieving superior prediction performance compared to previous state-of-the-art baselines. By encoding item attributes, PreSizE better handles cold-start cases with unseen items, and cases where buyers have little past purchase data. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that size predictions made by PreSizE can be effectively integrated into an existing production recommender system yielding very effective features and significantly improving recommendations.
Influenza-like illness (ILI) estimation from web search data is an important web analytics task. The basic idea is to use the frequencies of queries in web search logs that are correlated with past ILI activity as features when estimating current ILI
activity. It has been noted that since influenza is seasonal, this approach can lead to spurious correlations with features/queries that also exhibit seasonality, but have no relationship with ILI. Spurious correlations can, in turn, degrade performance. To address this issue, we propose modeling the seasonal variation in ILI activity and selecting queries that are correlated with the residual of the seasonal model and the observed ILI signal. Experimental results show that re-ranking queries obtained by Google Correlate based on their correlation with the residual strongly favours ILI-related queries.
الأسئلة المقترحة
سجل دخول لتتمكن من نشر تعليقات
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
