ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are valuable tools that consider the interactions between socioeconomic systems and the climate system. Decision-makers and policy analysts employ IAMs to calculate the marginalized monetary cost of climate damages resulting from an incremental emission of a greenhouse gas. Used within the context of regulating anthropogenic methane emissions, this metric is called the social cost of methane (SC-CH$_4$). Because several key IAMs used for social cost estimation contain a simplified model structure that prevents the endogenous modeling of non-CO$_2$ greenhouse gases, very few estimates of the SC-CH$_4$ exist. For this reason, IAMs should be updated to better represent methane cycle dynamics that are consistent with comprehensive Earth System Models. We include feedbacks of climate change on the methane cycle to estimate the SC-CH$_4$. Our expected value for the SC-CH$_4$ is $1163/t-CH$_4$ under a constant 3.0% discount rate. This represents a 44% increase relative to a mean estimate without feedbacks on the methane cycle.
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not take such
Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-
Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should reflect this. W
Though the Boltzmann-Gibbs framework of equilibrium statistical mechanics has been successful in many arenas, it is clearly inadequate for describing many interesting natural phenomena driven far from equilibrium. The simplest step towards that goal
There is ongoing interest in the global entropy production rate as a climate diagnostic and predictor, but progress has been limited by ambiguities in its definition; different conceptual boundaries of the climate system give rise to different intern