ترغب بنشر مسار تعليمي؟ اضغط هنا

Tail of the distribution of fatalities in epidemics

67   0   0.0 ( 0 )
 نشر من قبل Alvaro Corral
 تاريخ النشر 2020
  مجال البحث فيزياء
والبحث باللغة English
 تأليف Alvaro Corral




اسأل ChatGPT حول البحث

The size that an epidemic can reach, measured in terms of the number of fatalities, is an extremely relevant quantity. It has been recently claimed [Cirillo & Taleb, Nature Physics 2020] that the size distribution of major epidemics in human history is extremely fat-tailed, i.e., asymptotically a power law, which has important consequences for risk management. Reanalyzing this data, we find that, although the fatality distribution may be compatible with a power-law tail, these results are not conclusive, and other distributions, not fat-tailed, could explain the data equally well. As an example, simulation of a log-normally distributed random variable provides synthetic data whose statistics are undistinguishable from the statistics of the empirical data. Theoretical reasons justifying a power-law tail as well as limitations in the current data are also discussed.



قيم البحث

اقرأ أيضاً

We study structural changes of adaptive networks in the co-evolutionary susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) network model along its phase transition. We clarify to what extent these changes can be used as early-warning signs for the transition at the critical infection rate $lambda_c$ at which the network collapses and the system disintegrates. We analyze the interplay between topology and node-state dynamics near criticality. Several network measures exhibit clear maxima or minima close to the critical threshold that could potentially serve as early-warning signs. These measures include the $SI$ link density, triplet densities, clustering, assortativity and the eigenvalue gap. For the $SI$ link density and triplet densities the maximum is found to originate from the co-existence of two power laws. Other network quantities, such as the degree, the branching ratio, or the harmonic mean distance, show scaling with a singularity at $lambda=0$ and not at $lambda_c$, which means that they are incapable of detecting the transition.
Recommendations around epidemics tend to focus on individual behaviors, with much less efforts attempting to guide event cancellations and other collective behaviors since most models lack the higher-order structure necessary to describe large gather ings. Through a higher-order description of contagions on networks, we model the impact of a blanket cancellation of events larger than a critical size and find that epidemics can suddenly collapse when interventions operate over groups of individuals rather than at the level of individuals. We relate this phenomenon to the onset of mesoscopic localization, where contagions concentrate around dominant groups.
Pathogens can spread epidemically through populations. Beneficial contagions, such as viruses that enhance host survival or technological innovations that improve quality of life, also have the potential to spread epidemically. How do the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics differ from those of detrimental epidemics? We investigate this question using three theoretical approaches. First, in the context of population genetics, we show that a horizontally-transmissible element that increases fitness, such as viral DNA, spreads superexponentially through a population, more quickly than a beneficial mutation. Second, in the context of behavioral epidemiology, we show that infections that cause increased connectivity lead to superexponential fixation in the population. Third, in the context of dynamic social networks, we find that preferences for increased global infection accelerate spread and produce superexponential fixation, but preferences for local assortativity halt epidemics by disconnecting the infected from the susceptible. We conclude that the dynamics of beneficial biological and social epidemics are characterized by the rapid spread of beneficial elements, which is facilitated in biological systems by horizontal transmission and in social systems by active spreading behavior of infected individuals.
102 - Dan Lu 2016
Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations, and may bounce back to i ts original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate ${lambda_{2}}$ during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is ${lambda_{1}}$ in the rest of time. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for ${lambda_{2}<lambda_{c}}$, epidemics eventually could bounce back if control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., ${cd_{max}}$ can be predicted by the diameter (${d}$) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation ${cd_{max}sim d^{alpha}}$. Our findings can help to design a better mitigation strategy for epidemics.
186 - Ingo Piepers 2014
A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and development of the International System during the period 1495 - 1945. The identification of this singularity provides us with a perspective to penetrate a nd decode the dynamics of the International System. Various regularities in the dynamics of the International System can be identified. These regularities are remarkably consistent, and can be attributed to the connectivity and the growth of connectivity of the International System.
التعليقات
جاري جلب التعليقات جاري جلب التعليقات
سجل دخول لتتمكن من متابعة معايير البحث التي قمت باختيارها
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا