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تسجيل مستخدم جديدNo evidence of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus by independent analyses
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The detection of phosphine (PH3) in the atmosphere of Venus has been recently reported based on millimeter-wave radio observations (Greaves et al. 2020), and its re-analyses (Greaves et al. 2021a/b). In this Matters Arising we perform an independent reanalysis, identifying several issues in the interpretation of the spectroscopic data. As a result, we determine sensitive upper-limits for PH3 in Venus atmosphere (>75 km, above the cloud decks) that are discrepant with the findings in G2020 and G2021a/b. The measurements target the fundamental first rotational transition of PH3 (J=1-0) at 266.944513 GHz, which was observed with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT) in June 2017 and with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) in March 2019. This lines center is near the SO2 (J=309,21-318,24) transition at 266.943329 GHz (only 1.3 km/s away from the PH3 line) which represents a potential source of contamination. The JCMT and ALMA data, as presented in G2020, are at spectral resolutions comparable to the frequency separation of the two lines. Moreover, the spectral features identified are several km/s in width, and therefore do not permit distinct spectroscopic separation of the candidate spectral lines of PH3 and SO2. We present the radiative transfer modelling we have performed and then discuss the ALMA and JCMT analyses in turn.
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In the light of the recent announcement of the discovery of the potential biosignature phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus I present an independent reanalysis of the original JCMT data to assess the statistical reliability of the detection. Two line
detection methods are explored, low order polynomial fits and higher order multiple polynomial fits. A non-parametric bootstrap analysis reveals that neither line detection method is able to recover a statistically significant detection. Similar to the results of other reanalyses of ALMA Venus spectra, the polynomial fitting process results in false positive detections in the JCMT spectrum. There is thus no significant evidence for phosphine absorption in the JCMT Venus spectra.
New analysis is presented of the 1.1 mm wavelength absorption lines in Venus atmosphere that suggested the presence of phosphine. We confirm that ALMA detected absorption at the PH3 1-0 wavelength in 2019, from an optimised spectrum covering half of
the planetary disc. Sulphur dioxide line-contamination was then <10%, from modelling of a simultaneous ALMA spectrum of SO2. We retrieve an SO2 observation from the JCMT archive that was simultaneous within a few days of the PH3 1-0 spectrum obtained in June 2017, and demonstrate that contamination was also <10%. The contamination-subtracted ALMA and JCMT spectra (of 6-7 sigma confidence) are now consistent with similar levels of absorption. The variation is ~25% around -1.5 10-4 of the continuum, albeit not for identical planetary areas. This similarity suggests the abundance that can be attributed to phosphine in Venus atmosphere was broadly similar in 2017 and 2019.
We recover PH3 in the atmosphere of Venus in data taken with ALMA, using three different calibration methods. The whole-planet signal is recovered with 5.4{sigma} confidence using Venus bandpass self-calibration, and two simpler approaches are shown
to yield example 4.5-4.8{sigma} detections of the equatorial belt. Non-recovery by Villanueva et al. is attributable to (a) including areas of the planet with high spectral-artefacts and (b) retaining all antenna baselines which raises the noise by a factor ~2.5. We release a data-processing script that enables our whole-planet result to be reproduced. The JCMT detection of PH3 remains robust, with the alternative SO2 attribution proposed by Villanueva et al. appearing inconsistent both in line-velocity and with millimetre-wavelength SO2 monitoring. SO2 contamination of the ALMA PH3-line is minimal. Net abundances for PH3, in the gas column above ~55 km, are up to ~20 ppb planet-wide with JCMT, and ~7 ppb with ALMA (but with signal-loss possible on scales approaching planetary size). Derived abundances will differ if PH3 occupies restricted altitudes - molecules in the clouds will contribute significantly less absorption at line-centre than equivalent numbers of mesospheric molecules - but in the latter zone, PH3 lifetime is expected to be short. Given we recover phosphine, we suggest possible solutions (requiring substantial further testing): a small collisional broadening coefficient could give narrow lines from lower altitude, or a high eddy diffusion coefficient could allow molecules to survive longer at higher altitudes. Alternatively, PH3 could be actively produced by an unknown mechanism in the mesosphere, but this would need to be in addition to cloud-level PH3 detected retrospectively by Pioneer-Venus.
We published spectra of phosphine molecules in Venus clouds, following open-science principles in releasing data and scripts (with community input leading to ALMA re-processing, now benefiting multiple projects). Some misconceptions about de-trending
of spectral baselines have also emerged, which we address here. Using the JCMT PH3-discovery data, we show that mathematically-correct polynomial fitting of periodic ripples does not lead to fake lines (probability < ~1%). We then show that the ripples can be characterised in a non-subjective manner via Fourier transforms. A 20 ppb PH3 feature is ~5{sigma} compared to the JCMT baseline-uncertainty, and is distinctive as a narrow perturber of the periodic ripple pattern. The structure of the FT-derived baseline also shows that polynomial fitting, if unguided, can amplify artefacts and so artificially reduce significance of real lines.
Recently published ALMA observations suggest the presence of 20 ppb PH$_3$ in the upper clouds of Venus. This is an unexpected result, as PH$_3$ does not have a readily apparent source and should be rapidly photochemically destroyed according to our
current understanding of Venus atmospheric chemistry. While the reported PH$_3$ spectral line at 266.94 GHz is nearly co-located with an SO$_2$ spectral line, the non-detection of stronger SO$_2$ lines in the wideband ALMA data is used to rule out SO$_2$ as the origin of the feature. We present a reassessment of wideband and narrowband datasets derived from these ALMA observations. The ALMA observations are re-reduced following both the initial and revised calibration procedures discussed by the authors of the original study. We also investigate the phenomenon of apparent spectral line dilution over varying spatial scales resulting from the ALMA antenna configuration. A 266.94 GHz spectral feature is apparent in the narrowband data using the initial calibration procedures, but this same feature can not be identified following calibration revisions. The feature is also not reproduced in the wideband data. While the SO$_2$ spectral line is not observed at 257.54 GHz in the ALMA wideband data, our dilution simulations suggest that SO$_2$ abundances greater than the previously suggested 10 ppb limit would also not be detected by ALMA. Additional millimeter, sub-millimeter, and infrared observations of Venus should be undertaken to further investigate the possibility of PH$_3$ in the Venus atmosphere.
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