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تسجيل مستخدم جديدRegional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change
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Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework to assess projected changes in regional riverine flood inundation risks. The framework samples climate model outputs to force a hydrologic model and generate streamflow projections. Together with a statistical and hydraulic model, we use the projected streamflow to map the uncertainty of flood inundation projections for extreme flood events. We implement the framework for rivers across the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Our projections suggest that flood hazards and exposure across Pennsylvania are overall increasing with future climate change. Specific regions, including the main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion of the Allegheny basin and central portion of Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher flood inundation risks. In our analysis, the climate uncertainty dominates the overall uncertainty surrounding the flood inundation projection chain. The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can account for as much as 37% of the total uncertainty. We discuss how this framework can provide regional and dynamic flood-risk assessments and help to inform the design of risk-management strategies.
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The Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR;http://cccr.tropmet.res.in) at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM; http://www.tropmet.res.in), Pune, launched in 2009 with the support of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government o
f India, focuses on the development of new climate modelling capabilities in India and South Asia to address issues concerning the science of climate change. CCCR-IITM has the mandate of developing an Earth System Model and to make the regional climate projections. An important achievement was made by developing an Earth System Model at IITM, which is an important step towards understanding global and regional climate response to long-term climate variability and climate change. CCCR-IITM has also generated an ensemble of high resolution dynamically downscaled future projections of regional climate over South Asia and Indian monsoon, which are found useful for impact assessment studies and for quantifying uncertainties in the regional projections. A brief overview of these core climate change modeling activities of CCCR-IITM was presented in an Interim Report on Climate Change over India (available at http://cccr.tropmet.res.in/home/reports.jsp)
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