ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
This study proposes a new method of incorporating emotions from newspaper articles into macroeconomic forecasts, attempting to forecast industrial production and consumer prices leveraging narrative and sentiment from global newspapers. For the most part, existing research includes positive and negative tone only to improve macroeconomic forecasts, focusing predominantly on large economies such as the US. These works use mainly anglophone sources of narrative, thus not capturing the entire complexity of the multitude of emotions contained in global news articles. This study expands the existing body of research by incorporating a wide array of emotions from newspapers around the world - extracted from the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone (GDELT) - into macroeconomic forecasts. We present a thematic data filtering methodology based on a bi-directional long short term memory neural network (Bi-LSTM) for extracting emotion scores from GDELT and demonstrate its effectiveness by comparing results for filtered and unfiltered data. We model industrial production and consumer prices across a diverse range of economies using an autoregressive framework, and find that including emotions from global newspapers significantly improves forecasts compared to three autoregressive benchmark models. We complement our forecasts with an interpretability analysis on distinct groups of emotions and find that emotions associated with happiness and anger have the strongest predictive power for the variables we predict.
In this work, we reveal the structure of global news coverage of disasters and its determinants by using a large-scale news coverage dataset collected by the GDELT (Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone) project that monitors news media in over 1
The rise of fake news in the past decade has brought with it a host of consequences, from swaying opinions on elections to generating uncertainty during a pandemic. A majority of methods developed to combat disinformation either focus on fake news co
We develop the methodology and a detailed case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the recently introduced foundational framework of BPS to the multivariate sett
This study leverages narrative from global newspapers to construct theme-based knowledge graphs about world events, demonstrating that features extracted from such graphs improve forecasts of industrial production in three large economies compared to
We move beyond Is Machine Learning Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting? by adding the how. The current forecasting literature has focused on matching specific variables and horizons with a particularly successful algorithm. In contrast, we study the