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We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This SHIR model is applied to COVID-19 data, and shows promise as a simple, tractable formalism with few parameters that can be used to model pandemic case numbers. As an example we show that the average time dependence of new COVID-19 cases per day from 15 Central and Western European countries is in good agreement with the analytic, parameter-free prediction of the model
An epidemiological model is developed for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa. A variant of the classical compartmental SEIR model, called the SEIQRDP model, is used. As South Africa is still in the early phases of the global COVID-19 pandemic wit
We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The D (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known as SI model.
Disease transmission is studied through disciplines like epidemiology, applied mathematics, and statistics. Mathematical simulation models for transmission have implications in solving public and personal health challenges. The SIR model uses a compa
We present two different approaches for modeling the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both approaches are based on the population classes susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined, and recovered and allow for an arbitrary number of subgroups with
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the time evolution of the total number of infected population with Covid-19 disease at a region in the ongoing pandemic. Using the available data of Covid-19 infected population on various countries we formu