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Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.
The paper is a collection of knowledge regarding the phenomenon of climate change, competitiveness, and literature linking the two phenomena to agricultural market competitiveness. The objective is to investigate the peer reviewed and grey literature
Economists have predicted that damages from global warming will be as low as 2.1% of global economic production for a 3$^circ$C rise in global average surface temperature, and 7.9% for a 6$^circ$C rise. Such relatively trivial estimates of economic d
This paper examines how subsistence farmers respond to extreme heat. Using micro-data from Peruvian households, we find that high temperatures reduce agricultural productivity, increase area planted, and change crop mix. These findings are consistent
We model sectoral production by cascading binary compounding processes. The sequence of processes is discovered in a self-similar hierarchical structure stylized in the economy-wide networks of production. Nested substitution elasticities and Hicks-n
This paper quantifies the significance and magnitude of the effect of measurement error in satellite weather data in the analysis of smallholder agricultural productivity. The cross-country analysis leverages multiple rounds of georeferenced, nationa