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Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function. We propose a new parameter fitting method, Minimum Probability Flow (MPF), which is applicable to any parametric model. We demonstrate parameter estimation using MPF in two cases: a continuous state space model, and an Ising spin glass. In the latter case it outperforms current techniques by at least an order of magnitude in convergence time with lower error in the recovered coupling parameters.
Many important classification problems, such as object classification, speech recognition, and machine translation, have been tackled by the supervised learning paradigm in the past, where training corpora of parallel input-output pairs are required
Standard variational lower bounds used to train latent variable models produce biased estimates of most quantities of interest. We introduce an unbiased estimator of the log marginal likelihood and its gradients for latent variable models based on ra
We propose to use deep learning to estimate parameters in statistical models when standard likelihood estimation methods are computationally infeasible. We show how to estimate parameters from max-stable processes, where inference is exceptionally ch
Invertible flow-based generative models are an effective method for learning to generate samples, while allowing for tractable likelihood computation and inference. However, the invertibility requirement restricts models to have the same latent dimen
It is often observed that the probabilistic predictions given by a machine learning model can disagree with averaged actual outcomes on specific subsets of data, which is also known as the issue of miscalibration. It is responsible for the unreliabil