اشترك بالحزمة الذهبية واحصل على وصول غير محدود شمرا أكاديميا
تسجيل مستخدم جديدScreening of Informed and Uninformed Experts
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نشر من قبل
Jorge Francisco Barreras
تاريخ النشر
2019
مجال البحث
الهندسة المعلوماتية
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English
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Testing the validity of claims made by self-proclaimed experts can be impossible when testing them in isolation, even with infinite observations at the disposal of the tester. However, in a multiple expert setting it is possible to design a contract that only informed experts accept and uninformed experts reject. The tester can pit competing forecasts of future events against each other and take advantage of the uncertainty experts have about the other experts knowledge. This contract will work even when there is only a single data point to evaluate.
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