ﻻ يوجد ملخص باللغة العربية
This paper provides a thorough analysis on the dynamic structures and predictability of Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI-CN), with a comparison to those of the United States. Despite the differences in the two leading economies, both series can be well modeled by a class of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Covariates (S-ARIMAX). The CPI-CN series possess regular patterns of dynamics with stable annual cycles and strong Spring Festival effects, with fitting and forecasting errors largely comparable to their US counterparts. Finally, for the CPI-CN, the diffusion index (DI) approach offers improved predictions than the S-ARIMAX models.
We seek to investigate the effect of oil price on UAE goods trade deficit with the U.S. The current increase in the price of oil and the absence of significant studies in the UAE economy are the main motives behind the current study. Our paper focuse
In many applications, the dataset under investigation exhibits heterogeneous regimes that are more appropriately modeled using piece-wise linear models for each of the data segments separated by change-points. Although there have been much work on ch
This paper extends endogenous economic growth models to incorporate knowledge externality. We explores whether spatial knowledge spillovers among regions exist, whether spatial knowledge spillovers promote regional innovative activities, and whether
Dynamic model averaging (DMA) combines the forecasts of a large number of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to predict the future value of a time series. The performance of DMA critically depends on the appropriate choice of two forgetting factors. The fi
Instrumental variables (IV) regression is a popular method for the estimation of the endogenous treatment effects. Conventional IV methods require all the instruments are relevant and valid. However, this is impractical especially in high-dimensional