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Economists are often interested in estimating averages with respect to distributions of unobservables, such as moments of individual fixed-effects, or average partial effects in discrete choice models. For such quantities, we propose and study posterior average effects (PAE), where the average is computed conditional on the sample, in the spirit of empirical Bayes and shrinkage methods. While the usefulness of shrinkage for prediction is well-understood, a justification of posterior conditioning to estimate population averages is currently lacking. We show that PAE have minimum worst-case specification error under various forms of misspecification of the parametric distribution of unobservables. In addition, we introduce a measure of informativeness of the posterior conditioning, which quantifies the worst-case specification error of PAE relative to parametric model-based estimators. As illustrations, we report PAE estimates of distributions of neighborhood effects in the US, and of permanent and transitory components in a model of income dynamics.
In nonlinear panel data models, fixed effects methods are often criticized because they cannot identify average marginal effects (AMEs) in short panels. The common argument is that the identification of AMEs requires knowledge of the distribution of
We study the causal interpretation of regressions on multiple dependent treatments and flexible controls. Such regressions are often used to analyze randomized control trials with multiple intervention arms, and to estimate institutional quality (e.g
This paper provides a method to construct simultaneous confidence bands for quantile functions and quantile effects in nonlinear network and panel models with unobserved two-way effects, strictly exogenous covariates, and possibly discrete outcome va
In nonseparable triangular models with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrumental variable, Vuong and Xu (2017) show that the individual treatment effects (ITEs) are identifiable. Feng, Vuong and Xu (2019) show that a kernel density esti
Given the unconfoundedness assumption, we propose new nonparametric estimators for the reduced dimensional conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. In the first stage, the nuisance functions necessary for identifying CATE are estimated b